The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins will square off on Friday night, which means we’ll have football from Thursday through Monday. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Virginia-Maryland odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 3 bet!
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 3. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
Virginia-Maryland Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 3
Virginia-Maryland Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Virginia: +460 | Maryland: -630
Virginia +14.5: -110 | Maryland -14.5: -110
Over 47.5: -115 | Under 47.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Virginia-Maryland Pick & Prediction
The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins have gotten off to disappointing but productive starts. Virginia looked good for a half against Tennessee before collapsing and then lost to James Madison after having a late lead. Maryland blew out FCS Towson in Week 1 but struggled against Charlotte, failing to take the lead and run away with it until the second half. However, both squads have put up plenty of points — they are 3-1 to the over on the year after going a combined 7-15-1 to the over last year. Because these teams were so profitable for under bettors last year, we’re able to squeak out an edge on the over.
Virginia’s offense has had a tumultuous start to the year, but that hasn’t kept them off the scoreboard. Quarterback Tony Muskett started against Tennessee but was replaced by Anthony Colandrea against James Madison. The second-string signal caller exploded against the Dukes, completing 76.9% of his passes for 14.5 yards per attempt. James Madison ranked a respectable 59th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1) last year, making Colandrea’s performance that much more impressive. This week, he’ll face a regressing Terrapins defense that allowed 9.5 yards per attempt to bad Charlotte quarterbacks last week.
Maryland’s offense has looked good to start the year. The Terps may not have run away with last week’s game until late, but they racked up 530 total yards on 7.6 yards per play. Charlotte’s defense is awful, but it’s not much better than what Virginia’s has looked like early in the year — the Cavs coughed up 395 yards to James Madison on 6 per play and 499 yards to Tennessee on 5.9 per play. Virginia was a top-30 defense last year and allowed only 4.8 yards per play, but the Cavaliers played only 10 games and lost star linebacker Nick Jackson to Iowa. Jackson led the team in tackles (104) and ranked second in sacks (5), and the Cavs have clearly been missing him thus far.
Ultimately, we’re just getting too good of a number to pass up. Anything below the key number of 51 has value. The Terps cleared that threshold in seven of their regular-season games last year. The Cavs only did it four times, but their defense has taken enough of a step back such that we can trust Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense to put some points on the board. Tagovailoa is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt this year, which could prove problematic for a Virginia defense that is allowing 6.8, the exact number it allowed last season, which ranked a solid but unspectacular 33rd.
Check out our college football picks for Week 3! >>
After I recommended buying the over 49.5 in the early week column, the number has ticked down to 47.5 in some spots. I suspect that line movement isn’t sharp. Let’s not forget that these teams are playing on short rest and have struggled to defend Group of Five programs. Pregame reports that 88% of the tickets have come in on the over but have brought only 41% of the cash with them, which means the 12% of the tickets on the under have brought 59% of the cash. Let’s lock in the over at the now-improved price via FanDuel before it gets steamed back up to 48.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now with our FanDuel promo code, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets and $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket by placing a $5 wager!
Virginia-Maryland Week 3 Pick: Over 47.5 -115 at FanDuel
Top College Football & Sportsbook Promotions
