The West Virginia Mountaineers and Houston Cougars will do battle on Thursday night. If you aren’t interested in watching the Kansas City Chiefs destroy the Denver Broncos tonight, you’re in luck. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 7 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s West Virginia-Houston odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 7 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
West Virginia-Houston Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 7
West Virginia-Houston Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
West Virginia: -145 | Houston: +125
West Virginia -2.5: -110 | Houston +2.5: -110
Over 49.5: -110 | Under 49.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 9 p.m. ET
West Virginia-Houston Pick & Prediction
The Power Five returns to action on Thursday with a pretty unremarkable Big 12 contest. The West Virginia Mountaineers, one of two remaining undefeated teams in conference play, will visit the Houston Cougars. They are slight road favorites for the matchup, but I’m not buying into them this year — Houston isn’t good, but West Virginia isn’t, either. The Mountaineers don’t have a good option at quarterback.
The two quarterbacks at West Virginia’s disposal, starter Garrett Greene and backup Nicco Marchiol, have struggled. Greene owns a passing efficiency grade of 139.6 through 68 attempts, which, while not terrible, is above his career average (126.8) and largely stems from his beatdown of FCS Duquesne. He is yet to throw a touchdown against an FBS opponent this year. Marchiol owns a 103.4 and recorded sub-100 grades against Duquesne and Texas Tech.
Houston isn’t good, but at least the Cougars have a starting quarterback — and they have a sizeable advantage over the Mountaineers on offense. Starter Donovan Smith owns a passing efficiency grade of 135.9, and, unlike Greene, has thrown multiple touchdowns against FBS competition this year. He just tossed four against Texas Tech last week. Houston ranks 63rd in yards per play (5.4), far ahead of 121st-ranked West Virginia (4.3).
To be fair to West Virginia, the Mountaineers have an edge on defense, as they rank 32nd in yards allowed per play (5), far ahead of the 85th-ranked Cougars (5.8) — but we’re fading WVU head coach Neal Brown on the road. He has gone 8-16 SU and 11-13 ATS in road games since taking the helm in 2019. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen may be only 13-10 SU and 8-15 ATS at home since taking over, but with WVU ranked fourth in luck and Houston 94th, regression favors the Cougars.
Check out the rest of our college football picks for Week 7! ➚➚
I’m backing the Cougars to cover in this spot. Although several advanced projection systems favor West Virginia by more than a field goal, including the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), the Mountaineers’ passing attack isn’t sustainable. Since the early week column went live, Houston has ticked under the key number of three at several books. This isn’t uniformly true, but several of the books still selling Houston as a three-point underdog have stacked the juice on them to cover. Let’s take a look at OddsShopper’s tools to find the best line.
The most widely available sportsbook offering Houston as a three-point underdog at the standard juice of -110 is Caesars Sportsbook. Lock this wager in over there for the best price. If you’re yet to sign up at Caesars, you’re in luck — check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your first bet on the house up to $1,000! That means if you sign up over there and tail this Houston bet, you’ll receive your stake back in bonus bets if the Cougars fail to cover.
West Virginia-Houston Week 7 Pick: Houston +3 -110 at Caesars
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 7. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
