Happy Holidays! It’s New Year’s Day, which means we’ve got a full slate of games to add to our betting card. The New Year’s Six, the NHL Winter Classic and a few NBA games here and there make for a fun day of sports betting. I’m excited, you’re excited, so let’s get right into the top picks for today’s action — we’ve got a player prop pick for Timberwolves-Knicks, a Rose Bowl pick for Michigan-Alabama and an NHL Winter Classic pick for Golden Knights-Kraken! A few sportsbooks are offering boosts today, including BetMGM, where you’ll find boosts for the NHL and college football. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s betting model for more picks and the most up-to-date odds.
Best Bets for New Year’s Day: NBA, NHL & College Football Picks
Best NBA Bet for New Year’s Day: Timberwolves-Knicks Player Prop
The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the New York Knicks early on New Year’s Day. The Knicks, who just went out and got OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn and Precious Achiuwa from the Toronto Raptors, are expected to have two of the three available this afternoon.
I’m fading one member of the Knicks’ rotation, high-volume forward Julius Randle, in this spot. He has the unenviable task of facing the high-powered Timberwolves defense, which leads the NBA in defensive rating.
Minnesota’s defense can lock down the paint with ease. On a per-game basis, the Timberwolves allow just 47 points in the paint and 15.4 made field goals in the restricted area, which ranks seventh and fourth, respectively.
Minnesota’s solid defensive play near the rim has functionally shut down opposing power forwards. The Timberwolves lead the NBA in points allowed to power forwards on the year (19.9). They rank second-best over the last seven games as well (17.9).
Timberwolves-Knicks Player Prop: Julius Randle Under 26.5 Points -120 at bet365
Need more NBA player prop picks? Check out our full story here.
Best College Football Bet for New Year’s Day: Michigan-Alabama Rose Bowl Pick
Michigan-Alabama Rose Bowl Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Michigan: -130 | Alabama: +110
Michigan -2.5: -105 | Alabama +2.5: -115
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Time: Monday, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl Pick for Michigan-Alabama
The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle for a bid to the College Football National Championship Game. The Wolverines are riding high off an undefeated season, while the Tide are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game.
If you’re expecting offensive fireworks in this year’s Rose Bowl, you’re out of luck. These teams field two of the most talented defenses in college football. The Tide’s defense ranks a solid 21st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per game. The unit ranks ninth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Importantly, Alabama’s defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.7). They just held Georgia to 2.5 yards per rush. Michigan ranks 17th in rushing play percentage (59.6%), so if Alabama can limit their gains on the ground, we could be in for a low-scoring affair.
While Alabama’s defense is good, Michigan’s defense is better. The Wolverines rank sixth in EPA allowed per play and fourth in the FEI. The unit ranks fifth in both yards allowed per rush attempt (2.9) and yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8). Like Michigan, Alabama runs at a high clip — the Tide rank 14th in rushing play percentage (60.3%).
Ultimately, the total of 45.5 just feels a squeeze too high. Because of their run-heavy schemes, Alabama and Michigan rank 96th and 132nd in seconds per play, respectively, and the slow pacing should depress scoring. The FEI projects this game for 43.3 points, and I’m locking in the under 45.5 at odds of -110 across the market. You can even boost this wager to +136 for the first $25 at BetMGM!
Michigan-Alabama Rose Bowl Pick: Under 45.5 -110 at BetMGM
Best NHL Bet for New Year’s Day: Golden Knights-Kraken Winter Classic Pick
Winter Classic Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Golden Knights: -135 | Kraken: +115
Golden Knights -1.5: +185 | Kraken +1.5: -225
Over 6: +100 | Under 6: -120
Time: Monday, Jan. 1 at 3 p.m. ET
Golden Knights-Kraken Pick
The 22-10-5 Vegas Golden Knights will visit the 14-14-9 Seattle Kraken at T-Mobile Park in this year’s Winter Classic. The Kraken are a slight road favorite at odds of -135. Even though the odds aren’t all that friendly, I’m backing the favorites to get the job done on New Year’s Day.
The goalies for this one are unconfirmed, but it appears that backups Logan Thompson and Joey Daccord will start in net for Vegas and Seattle, respectively. This year, Thompson ranks 31st in total goals saved above expected (GSAE) with 2.8, racking them up in 1,000-plus minutes of ice time. Meanwhile, Daccord ranks 50th in GSAE with -0.6 in even more ice time than Thompson. The statistical disparity between the two extends to last year, albeit to a less significant degree — Daccord ranked 60th with -0.6 GSAE while Thompson ranked 54th with 0.1 GSAE.
Seattle’s worse situation in net bodes poorly against Vegas’ offense. The Golden Knights rank second in expected goals for (83.6) this year, far ahead of the 21st-ranked Kraken. The Golden Knights have been getting unlucky, as they rank ninth in save percentage above expected in unblocked shots (0.72%), which explains why they rank a less-impressive ninth in goals for (78). That again far outpaces the Kraken, who rank 26th in overall goals for. Keep things simple by backing Vegas on New Year’s Day — you can even boost their moneyline odds from -135 to +111 for the first $25 at BetMGM!
Golden Knights-Kraken NHL Winter Classic Pick: Golden Knights -135 at BetMGM
