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2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Picks: Chestnut the GOAT, but More Value in Field (July 4)

The Fourth of July marks the pinnacle of modern day sports. At high noon on the 4th the country’s best athletes will take the stage in an unmatched feat of modern day athleticism known as the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. And most importantly, the public has a chance to get action down on this monumental event.

Joey Chestnut is the GOAT, but he’ll be joined by a slew of other professional eaters for bettors to consider. That means some analysis is in order, so let’s dive into the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on Underdog odds and best bets!

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Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Bets: Joey Chestnut, Nick Wehry, Geoffrey Esper

Joey Chestnut – Over 72.5 Hot Dogs Eaten

You may have heard of Joey Chestnut, who is otherwise known as the Michael Jordan of hot dog eating. He enters this contest having won seven straight events and 15 of the last 16 competitions. Chestnut was off his game last year, turning in a performance of just 63 dogs eaten. However, Chestnut dealt with some external circumstances last year. He tore his Achilles, which prevented him from his usual cardio regime. Yes, that’s right, a strict cardio regime is in fact part of Chestnut’s process. He also dealt with the passing of his mother the month prior to the contest, which definitely took an emotional toll on the professional eater. Finally, Chestnut battled through adversity when a protestor jumped on the stage, disrupting his process.

All of those distractions are behind behind him. Chestnut has been reaching the upper 70’s and low 80’s in preparation for the 2023 contest with the issues now aside. Prior to last year’s showing, Chestnut has reached 70 dogs or more in six straight contests. With the weather expected to cooperate here, Chestnut should again eclipse his 72.5 hot dog prop.

Nick Wehry – Under 45.5 Hot Dogs Eaten

Nick Wehry comes in with a prop of 45.5 hot dogs which is one of the most perplexing lines on the Nathan Hot Dog Eating Contest odds board.  This number has come down from 46.5, but it remains a value bet. Wehry has never eaten more than 44 hot dogs in any contest. Last year he came in at 40 on the dot.

Geoffrey Esper – Under 48.5 Hot Dogs Eaten

This final hot dog contest bet is a bit riskier than the two previous prop bets. Geoffrey Esper enters with a prop bet odds of 48.5. Esper has eclipsed this mark just once in the last six competitions. His only time reaching the number occurred in the historic contest of 2021, where Chestnut broke the world record and multiple eaters hit personal records. Last year, Esper came in at 47.5. While the margins are narrower here, Esper’s under still deserves to be played.

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Matt Gajewski

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