After a thrilling Wild Card weekend loaded with close games, the NFL’s two No. 1 seeds, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, will take the field in the Divisional Round. Action will run from mid-afternoon on Saturday through Sunday night. Those looking for an edge should pay close attention to the NFL public betting splits to identify what bets the sharps are placing early in the week, and how to best fade the public. The Bengals-Bills public betting splits may prove especially instructive.
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NFL Public Betting Splits | Divisional Round
Jaguars-Chiefs Public Betting Splits: Weather Driving Sharp Action on Total
The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Missouri, and the Florida-based Jaguars may have to contend with some sloppy weather. The forecast lists a high chance of precipitation and below-freezing temperatures that could produce a wintry mix. Unsurprisingly, some sharp action has backed the under.
The total for Saturday’s contest opened at 53 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has this total listed at 52.5. Pregame reports that the under has attracted 40% of the cash on only 26% of the tickets. VSiN, which indexes bets placed at DraftKings, reports that 52% of the book’s handle has come in on the under on only 35% of the tickets.
Bettors eager to tail the sharps should buy the under at DraftKings. Even square books like FanDuel have this total set to 52.5. The half-point may not end up making much difference, but this number could get steamed down to 51 or below if Saturday’s weather forecast doesn’t improve. New users at DraftKings can secure $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager.
Verdict: Jaguars-Chiefs Under 53 (-110) at DraftKings
Giants-Eagles Public Betting Splits: One Side of Total Picking Up Steam
After a week off, the Philadelphia Eagles and Jalen Hurts will host the New York Giants and Daniel Jones. The maxim that it’s hard to beat the same team three times in a season has gotten tossed around a lot in advance of Saturday night’s contest, but such reasoning hasn’t pushed the sharps to back New York.
The Giants look like a public team this week. VSiN reports that 70% of the bets on the spread have come in on New York, but only 65% of the cash. Pregame reports an even split in the tickets with a very slight bias to New York in the handle percentage. The spread for Saturday’s action hasn’t enticed the sharps, but the total has.
The total opened at 48, and that’s exactly where most books are taking action now. Pinnacle has increased it to 48.5. According to Pregame, 88% of the cash has come in on the over on 78% of the tickets. VSiN reports that 79% of the handle has come in on the over on 70% of the tickets. Those interested in tailing the sharps can still get the 48 at DraftKings.
Verdict: Giants-Eagles Over 48 (-110) at DraftKings
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Bengals-Bills Public Betting Splits: Sharp Money All Over Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals barely held off injury-riddled division rivals to secure a spot in this round. Joe Burrow needed a defensive touchdown to get by the Baltimore Ravens, and Josh Allen let the Miami Dolphins come within a field goal. Both teams will look to get on the right track come Sunday afternoon. However, both quarterbacks may have to contend with high winds.
Sunday’s Bengals-Bills matchup has the early look of a Pros vs. Joes matchup. The spread opened at Buffalo -3 but quickly got steamed up to Buffalo -5.5, although Pinnacle still has this game at -5. Pregame reports that 64% of the tickets have come in on Cincinnati but only 25% of the cash. Likewise, VSiN reports that 71% of the bets are on Cincinnati but only 58% of the handle.
Cincinnati took a beating against Baltimore, and Burrow could be without multiple starters along his offensive line: left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa. Right tackle La’el Collins also landed on injured reserve just after Christmas. The Bills-Bengals betting splits clearly favor Buffalo. Bettors eager to chase steam should wait and see if they can find a better number, or play the 5.5 at DraftKings in case Cincinnati rules out Williams and Cappa.
Verdict: Bills -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Cowboys-49ers Public Betting Splits: San Francisco Looking Sharp Early
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers each earned a commanding win in the Wild Card round. They’ll now meet in Santa Clara, California, on Sunday evening. Both teams feature outstanding passing defense, so quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott will have their work cut out for them.
The early NFL betting splits don’t show much of a meaningful trend for Sunday’s contest. Pregame reports an even split in the cash on the spread. VSiN reports the 49ers have drawn 72% of the cash on 67% of the bets, but that action wasn’t enough for them to move the spread. The over has drawn 74% of the cash on 75% of the tickets, per Pregame, and VSiN reports 71% of the handle has come in on the over on 75% of the bets.
With Pinnacle stacking the juice on San Francisco to cover, this spread may move up from -3.5 to -4 or -4.5 by kickoff, especially if Dallas gets bad news about tackles Jason Peters and Tyron Smith. Bettors who want to get ahead of that possible movement should head to DraftKings to buy the -3.5 while it remains on the market, but that play offers less value than the three listed above.
Verdict: 49ers -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings
