Super Wild Card Weekend has arrived. The NFL will play a loaded six-game playoff slate from Saturday afternoon through Monday night, and fans eager to consume meaningful football will have plenty on tap. Here are the NFL public betting splits for each Wild Card game for bettors eager to fade the public. Monday’s Cowboys-Buccaneers public betting splits stand out even more than the rest.
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NFL Public Betting Splits | Super Wild Card Weekend
Seahawks-49ers Public Betting Splits: Total Attracting Sharp Money
The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers will do battle for the third time this year. The 49ers opened as a 7-point favorite but quickly saw their advantage jump to 9.5 or 10, which is where this market has remained ever since. But unlike the spread, the total has some untapped value remaining some sharps have been keen to target.
The total opened at 43.5. The Seahawks and 49ers finished with 34 points in both of their regular-season games. Both teams will have to contend with wind and rain during their playoff rematch. According to pregame, 85% of the cash has come in on the under on only 38% of the tickets. According to VSiN, which indexes bets placed at DraftKings Sportsbook, 42% of the cash has backed the under on only 37% of the bets.
Bettors eager to tail sharp action on the total can still get the 42.5 at DraftKings. Pinnacle, a sharp sportsbook, has already dropped the total to 42. New users at DraftKings can secure $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, New users in Ohio can access that deal through this link instead!
Verdict: Seahawks-49ers Under 42.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Chargers-Jaguars Public Betting Splits: No Clear Sharp or Public Favorite
Head coach Brandon Staley drew plenty of criticism for not resting his starters last week. The Los Angeles Chargers may now have to play without starting wide receiver Mike Williams. They’ll face the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are riding high off a late-game surge to earn a playoff spot, in Duval County.
The public betting data doesn’t point to a clear-cut wager here. The Chargers opened as a 2.5-point favorite, got bid down to a 1-point favorite, but then saw their advantage creep back up to 2.5. Pregame reports that 63% of the cash has come in on Jacksonville on 54% of the tickets. VSiN reports only 34% of the cash has backed the Jaguars — and 39% of the tickets.
Bettors should check back on this game later in the week to see if the splits reveal any value. Sharps might be waiting on news about Mike Williams before getting too much exposure on Saturday night’s contest.
Verdict: PASS
Dolphins-Bills Public Betting Splits: Who is Betting on Miami?
The Miami Dolphins have already ruled out starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and that news hurt Miami significantly in the betting market. The Dolphins were 9.5-point underdogs before the news but are now 13-point underdogs across the market. Sharps acted fast to bid the value off the board.
According to Pregame, 93% of the cash has come in on Buffalo. VSiN reports that 87% of the cash DraftKings has taken on the spread has also come in on Buffalo. The sheer volume of money on the Bills explains the line movement. This number could tick up even higher as the books look to draw contrarian action on the Dolphins.
Bettors eager to chase steam should note that this spread is quite wide for a playoff game. Only one other game for this weekend’s card has traded in the double digits. The Bills are only 2-3 against the spread when it’s set to a double-digit number, and they are yet to cover against the Dolphins this year. However, this number could move over the key number of 14 — especially given Miami’s injury report. Playing the -13 at DraftKings still feels like a decent deal. This spread has already jumped up to 13.5 at FanDuel.
Verdict: Bills -13 (-110) at DraftKings
Giants-Vikings Public Betting Splits: Well-Set Lines Leave Little Value
The Minnesota Vikings might be one of the worst 13-win teams in NFL history. Even without the extra game, a 12-win Vikings squad would still seem fraudulent. The Vikings will now face the New York Giants, a team they beat by a field goal but failed to cover against in the regular season. Sharps faded the Vikings then but aren’t as eager to do so now.
The spread for Sunday’s rematch opened right where Week 16’s game ended: a 3-point margin favoring Minnesota. The spread hasn’t budged since. Pregame reports that 54% of the cash has come in on New York on 52% of the tickets. VSiN has New York accounting for 51% of the handle on 42% of the tickets.
The total opened at 48, three points below what the Giants and Vikings totaled on Christmas Eve. The over has drawn 67% of the cash, per Pregame, but only 44% of the cash, per VSiN. Early sharp action reveals that both lines are well-calibrated — not something all that hard to do for an indoor game between two teams that met less than a month ago.
Verdict: PASS
Ravens-Bengals Public Betting Splits: Sharp Books Fading the Ravens
Like the Dolphins, the Baltimore Ravens have gotten concerning news about quarterback Lamar Jackson, and the books have adjusted the spread accordingly. Jackson is yet to return to practice following a PCL injury he suffered weeks ago, which would put Tyler Huntley in line to start. But Huntley has been dealing with an injury to his right throwing shoulder, which could leave the Ravens with Anthony Brown or Brett Hundley.
The Bengals opened as 6.5-point favorites but have seen their advantage bid up to 8.5. Pinnacle already has moved this spread up to 10. Pregame reports that 92% of the cash has poured in on Cincinnati, and VSiN has that number at 84%. Domestic sportsbooks may soon follow Pinnacle’s example. Bettors eager to get the last squeeze of value on Cincinnati should head to DraftKings before the value disappears.
Verdict: Bengals -8.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Cowboys-Buccaneers Public Betting Splits: Fade the Public Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are usually an incredibly popular team with the public. But bettors haven’t come out in droves to back them against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite despite losing to Tampa Bay by 16 points at home — although that game came all the way back in Week 1.
Dallas has drawn only 44% of the handle on 46% of the bets, per VSiN, and 18% of the handle on 42% of the tickets, per Pregame. Tampa Bay has drawn an interesting amount of sharp action for Monday night’s contest. NFL bettors eager to tail the Cowboys-Buccaneers public betting splits should head to DraftKings for the best deal on the market — the +2.5 is currently available at odds of +100.
Verdict: Buccaneers +2.5 (+100) DraftKings
