It’s not hard to find a betting pick. A Google search for “NFL bets tonight” yields 13 million-plus hits. These links claim to offer “locks” and “best values,” but most originate with people who are better writers than they are bettors. And those that are good picks could go stale in minutes. Markets move quickly as value is snapped up by savvy bettors.
This isn’t to knock free betting content – we contribute our fair share here at OddsShopper. It’s a fun and engaging way to get some action–call it the “scratch-off approach” to betting. Just don’t expect to become a millionaire tailing picks from Prop Overlord or Spread Destroyer.
But there are sports betting strategies that can return a profit when implemented properly. They come in two forms: First, you can build your own statistical model around the underlying sports and players involved. These models spit out probabilities of outcomes that are then compared to sportsbook odds. This is commonly known as the “origination” approach to betting. Origination is just a fancy word for “create” since you’re essentially creating your own betting lines.
But there is an alternative that is more viable for most bettors: Market-based sports betting.
Just as it sounds, market-based betting involves taking cues from the market to guide your bets. Similar to stock traders, who buy/sell on price trends or technical analysis, the market-based bettor does not evaluate the merit of the underlying bet but instead acts upon market information.
Specifically, market-based strategies involve taking advantage of discrepancies and inefficiencies in the betting market to make a profit. These strategies are based on the principle that bookmakers are not always able to set perfect odds, and that these imperfections can be exploited by savvy bettors. The two most popular forms of market-based betting are: (1) Arbitrage Betting and (2) Value Betting.
The first, Arbitrage Betting, is also known as “Sure Betting” or “Arbing.” This strategy involves taking advantage of discrepancies in odds between different bookmakers in order to make a guaranteed profit. It works by placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event at different bookmakers in such a way that, regardless of the outcome, the bettor will make a profit.
For example, if one book is offering odds of +120 on the Bears to win versus the Packers and another is offering -105 on the Packers, a bettor could bet both sides by placing $100 on the Bears and $112.70 on the Packers and guarantee a $220 payout regardless of the games result, which would result in $7.30 in profit. While initial profits may seem small, over time these gains can compound as your bankroll grows.
Arbitrage is a great approach if you have lots of time on your hands and are willing to consistently put in the effort, but if you lack the patience for the slow-but-steady nature of arbitrage, you may want to explore the next alternative, Value Betting.
Value Betting, also referred to as “Positive EV” or “Plus EV” Betting, also involves taking advantage of discrepancies between odds offered by “retail” or “square” bookmakers and the true probability of a particular outcome occurring, as represented by the odds of “market makers” or “sharp sportsbooks.” A bet is considered a value bet when the true probability of an outcome occurring is higher than the winning probability implied by odds offered by a bookmaker.
For example, if the lines at a market maker imply a vig-free win probability of a Lakers win at 50% and any other book is offering greater than +100 odds, that would be a positive EV bet. The higher the odds at, the more profitable the bet.
The key to this strategy is identifying market makers, which can be difficult. There isn’t a single market maker, but they can vary from market to market. Some books are better at certain sports, and others specialize in submarkets within sports. Further complicating the analysis is that certain markets have multiple market makers, some of which are more accurate than others.
At OddsShopper, we have gathered billions of data points to analyze which books are sharpest in each market and have distilled our findings down to a weighted algorithm, the Stokastic Sharp Sportsbook Line. This line is compared in real-time to odds available at the most popular sportsbooks, resulting in expected value and win percentages that are displayed on our Shop Page and Parlay Builder.
If you want to try these tools for free, a seven-day free trial is available of OddsShopper Premium.
