The 2023 NFL Draft will get underway on Thursday, April 27 at 8 p.m. ET, when the Carolina Panthers go on the clock for the first overall pick. The consensus among sportsbooks and draft analysts alike is that Bryce Young will go first, but just about everything after that remains up in the air. With books offering plenty of betting markets on this year’s NFL draft, here are my top bets and predictions for the first 10 picks of Thursday’s opening round — mock draft style — using the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
2023 NFL Mock Draft & Best Bets | Picks 1 to 5
1.01 Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young -2000 via DraftKings
You won’t make much money betting on this line. In fact, you’d probably lose more than you’d make — the Carolina Panthers will probably take Alabama’s Bryce Young first overall, but will they do that 95.2% of the time, as this number suggests? Almost every analyst has Young going first overall, and just about every book has him as a massive favorite. Still, that doesn’t mean I recommend wagering 20 units to profit only one.
1.02 Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr. +350 for 0.5 Units via DraftKings
The Houston Texans need a quarterback. However, the 2024 class features several exceptional signal-callers, including USC’s Caleb Williams. The Texans are internally split on C.J. Stroud, and enough sharp mock drafts have Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. here that I can’t reasonably pass on this price. Anderson will give them a massive leg up in the trenches as they look to complete a long-term rebuild. The Texans take Anderson here more than 22.2% of the time.
1.03 Las Vegas Raiders via Arizona Cardinals: C.J. Stroud +230 for 0.25 Units via DraftKings
If any of the top-shelf picks move, it’ll be this one. The Arizona Cardinals aren’t getting much value here if they use this pick, and plenty of quarterback-needy teams like the Las Vegas Raiders or the Tennessee Titans might be eager to jump the Indianapolis Colts — or the Colts themselves may be forced to move up — to select a quarterback. If it’s anyone, I think it’s C.J. Stroud. The S2 Cognition Test rumors that appear to have tanked Stroud’s draft stock seem like a smokescreen to keep his draft stock low. There’s a better than 30.3% chance that somebody trades up for Stroud at this spot.
1.04 Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis +130 via DraftKings
We can actually get a better price on this one by taking the Colts to draft Kentucky’s Will Levis at odds of +175 for 0.75 Units via DraftKings. While that won’t help us if the Colts trade up for Stroud, they could move up to take Levis, which would still cash this ticket. Further, should the Colts move up, it’s unlikely that whoever ends up with this pick (almost certainly the Cardinals) would take a quarterback. We’re backing Levis over Florida’s Anthony Richardson because plenty of insider information suggests the Colts prefer Levis.
1.05 Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter +600 for 0.25 Units via DraftKings
This play is pretty chalky, so getting it at odds of +600 is sharp. This isn’t a sexy pick by any means, as Georgia’s Jalen Carter has drawn plenty of criticism for a lack of effort and just went through some off-the-field issues at the NFL combine, but Seattle should be eager to get some relief in the trenches with the fifth overall pick. Opposing running backs owned the Seahawks last year, so a run-stopper like Carter could help them turn the tide. With the sharp mock index compiled by Matthew Freeman of FantasyPros having 40% of drafters on Carter here, it’s easy to justify buying the implied odds of only 14.9%.
2023 NFL Mock Draft & Best Bets | Picks 6 to 10
1.06 Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez +450 via DraftKings
Most experts have a cornerback here, and it’s either Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez or Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon. Witherspoon has a slight edge to get drafted at sixth overall (-130 to +450) and a massive edge to get taken first at cornerback (-260 to +180). Notably, Gonzalez is trading at +450 (18.2%) via DraftKings to get taken here but +400 (20%) via Bovada. This pick is probably a toss-up between Gonzalez and Witherspoon unless Jalen Carter falls, and I recommend keeping your exposure to this market limited. We’re getting into dart-throw territory, so I’ll go with the underdog here.
1.07 Arizona Cardinals via Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson Jr. +300 via DraftKings
I don’t love the price for this one, so we’re going to play a completely different market: let’s back the Cardinals to draft an offensive lineman with their first draft choice at +250 for 0.5 Units via DraftKings. Arizona cannot hope to get anything out of Kyler Murray with an offensive line bookended by tackles D.J. Humphries and Kelvin Beachum, and insider buzz suggests that they’re aware of this fact. The Cardinals are unlikely to take an offensive lineman if they are unable to move down, but I expect their front office to get enough competitive offers for the third overall pick to make taking Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. or Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski a realistic option.
1.08 Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson +200 for 0.25 Units via DraftKings
Are the New York Giants a model franchise? If you believe so, then taking a first-round running back despite not having a franchise quarterback under center can get you to the playoffs. That’s what the Giants did with Saquon Barkley before picking Daniel Jones the next season. I’m not a fan of this move, but Robinson is oozing with talent, and the Falcons are oozing with desperation. Some insider buzz points to Robinson here, and the Jeff Okudah trade makes it much less likely that the Falcons opt to take whichever one of Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon falls to them.
1.09 Chicago Bears: Peter Skoronski +380 for 0.25 Units via DraftKings
The Chicago Bears need help along the offensive line. Quarterback Justin Fields took too many sacks last season, and while some of those were on him for holding on to the ball too long, starting a fifth-round rookie at left tackle can do that to your franchise. But the admirable performance by first-year tackle Braxton Jones makes it less likely that the Bears target a true left tackle here, so let’s set them up with Peter Skoronski, whose frame makes him a better fit at guard.
1.10 Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Van Ness +600 for 0.25 Units via DraftKings
For those of you keeping track at home, I’m aware that I haven’t mocked Tyree Wilson to anybody yet. I’m also aware that just about everybody has him as a top-10 talent, perhaps a top-5 talent, as his odds of -300 to wind up going the top-5 picks suggest. If this weren’t a betting-oriented mock draft, I would certainly have Wilson off the board by now. But this is a best bets column, so we’re sending Luke Van Ness to the Philadelphia Eagles at odds of +600 via DraftKings instead. Van Ness fits Philadelphia’s defensive scheme and will serve as a nice complement to Jordan Davis in the trenches as the Eagles get ready to move on from aging veterans like Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox.
