Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Thursday’s Bears-Commanders betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet! Don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost for Bears-Commanders from FanDuel Sportsbook as well.
Bears-Commanders Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bears: +205 | Commanders: -250
Bears +5.5: -110 | Commanders -5.5: -110
Over 44.5: -105 | Under 44.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 5 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Bears-Commanders Pick & Prediction
When will the Chicago Bears end their losing skid? The team hasn’t won a regular-season game since last October’s victory over the New England Patriots. The sportsbooks don’t expect much out of Chicago on Thursday — the Bears are 6-point road underdogs — so it’s safe to expect their losing streak to continue. Nothing has gone well for the Bears this year, and it shows up in the advanced stats: Chicago ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 31st in EPA allowed per play. They rank 1.7 standard deviations below the league average in my EPA-based power rating.
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Although the Commanders aren’t a great football team, they’re more than good enough to feast against this Bears defense. Chicago coughed up 38 points to the Packers, 27 to the Buccaneers, 41 to the Chiefs and 31 to the Broncos, yet the Commanders’ team total sits at only 24.5 on FanDuel. Are the Commanders that much worse than the rest of the Bears’ opponents? No, especially not when you consider how these teams match up — Chicago allows the second-most EPA per dropback of any defense, and Washington attempts to pass at the fourth-highest rate of any offense.
Let’s get some action on the over for Washington’s team total. We’re trusting Sam Howell and a passing offense that ranks only 21st in EPA per dropback, but that hasn’t kept them from averaging the 17th-most points per game (22.3). That average is all the more impressive when you remember they were held to just three points against the Bills. Buffalo showed that the way to limit Washington’s scoring was an effective pass rush, but Chicago ranks a bad 20th in pass-rush win rate (42%), which partially explains why the club ranks 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.4).
We’ve also getting exposure to an over because this is a Thursday night game. Both defenses are working on short rest, which will limit their ability to keep the other side from scoring. Chicago is already 4-0 to the over this year and is 14-7 to the over under head coach Matt Eberfus. They may have held the Commanders to 12 points in a Thursday night game last year, but Washington was starting Carson Wentz, and the Bears got a 12-tackle, one-sack performance from Roquan Smith, who they dealt at last year’s trade deadline. This year’s Commanders should easily hang at least 25 points on this year’s Bears.
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Washington’s team total was trading at 25.5 when the early week column went up, but, with the under and Bears taking some early money, the number has since ticked down to 24.5. While 25 isn’t a key number, I actually got some more exposure to the new number at the better price of -108 via FanDuel, which you can boost to +139 for the first $25. Washington has a pair of wide receivers on the injury report, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson, but both should be good to go come Thursday night. Trust Howell and company to beat up on a terrible Bears defense that’s coming off a backbreaking loss and a short week of rest.
Bears-Commanders NFL Week 4 Pick: Commanders Over 24.5 -108 (+139 Boosted) at FanDuel
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