Tonight’s game in Jacksonville has a distinctly different feel than any lookahead when the schedule was first released. Cincinnati is down Joe Burrow, and the team has dropped three straight. Jake Browning simply hasn’t been good enough and faces an enormous task in keeping up with Jacksonville. The Jaguars won two straight ahead of tonight and are up two games in the loss column ahead of both Indianapolis and Houston. Here are tonight’s best first touchdown props for Monday Night Football!
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Bengals-Jaguars First Touchdown Picks | Monday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals Touchdown Scorer
Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon are still healthy. The Bengals still have an offensive line relatively intact. While the Jaguars aren’t blowing doors off with their offense, it’s one that can score in bursts. The Bengals must come out aggressive in getting both Chase and Mixon the ball, especially Mixon in the pass game. It will do wonders to take off some — not all — pressure on Browning.
Outside of any big play, it’s going to be harder for Browning to move the ball through Chase than it will for the Bengals to feed Mixon. It’s not even a matter of where the soft spots are in Jacksonville’s defense, but rather a desperation mode where the Bengals are out of options. This is a road game against a monster in the AFC where the Bengals were already in trouble before Burrow went down. They need an early touchdown as much as any team this week.
That means it’s Mixon, chalk for the Bengals but still a solid 6-1 return on Caesars. Mixon might get the carries, he might take a quick screen or swing, or simply break a big one. Ideally, he should have the ball in his hands as much as Browning in their opening drive. Bet Mixon to score first.
Bengals-Jaguars First Touchdown Picks: Joe Mixon +600 at Caesars for 0.25 Units
Jacksonville Jaguars First Touchdown Scorer
Doug Pederson has a bunch of options for Trevor Lawrence in the pass game, but don’t neglect any value on the ground. Unfortunately, it’s not Travis Etienne Jr., as he sits atop the board at +375 to score first. While that’s not an awful number for a spot where the Jags should strike early and often, it’s not worth a shot because of injury.
Etienne is playing — currently questionable — through a rib injury, which should at least limit his carries. He won’t be held out of the majority of the game, but it should be most noticeable near the goal line. The Jaguars feature back is a staple in the passing game. He’s averaging five targets over the past seven games, but they should limit higher-impact situations, which opens an opportunity for the only trustworthy backup.
D’Ernest Johnson is the clear No. 2 option behind Etienne but has a limit when everyone is healthy. Johnson should benefit in short-yardage and goal line scenarios. There’s also a pathway where Jacksonville is down Etienne either pre or in game and Johnson sees an increase as a result. Currently sitting at 14-1, Johnson enters the conversation as a great choice to score first.
Bengals-Jaguars First Touchdown Picks: D’Ernest Johnson +1400 at FanDuel for 0.25 Units
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