The AFC North might be the most competitive division in the NFL this season. The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals headline the division, but the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are both in the thick of the playoff hunt — and the Bengals are currently fourth with just a 5-4 record. Let’s dive into the best Bengals-Ravens player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football, including a Joe Burrow pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Bengals-Ravens Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Bengals: +165 | Ravens: -185
Bengals +3.5: -115 | Bears -3.5: -105
Over 46: -110 | Under 46: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Bengals-Ravens Player Prop Pick
Joe Burrow Prop O/U 0.5 Interceptions
The Cincinnati Bengals have looked much better than they did early in the year, largely because of quarterback Joe Burrow getting back to his old self after recovering from a calf injury. However, Burrow isn’t perfect — he just threw two interceptions in a loss to the Houston Texans, bringing him to six interceptions on eight interceptable passes over nine games. Burrow threw a pick against the Baltimore Ravens back in September. He has yet to make a start in Baltimore without getting picked off at least once. So will he finally have a clean appearance in Charm City?
I’m betting on Burrow to throw at least one pick come Thursday. Burrow’s rate of 0.9 interceptable passes per game makes him a sharp pick at odds of just -110 to do so. Burrow will take on a Ravens defense that’s missing cornerback Marlon Humphrey, but the veteran corner is yet to intercept a pass this year, and the Ravens picked off Burrow just fine without him in Week 2. Baltimore’s defense has picked off opposing quarterbacks 10 times in 10 games, largely a credit to safety Geno Stone, who has six. The Ravens have too much talent in the secondary to let Burrow throw his first interception-less game in Baltimore.
Bengals-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Interceptions -110 at Hard Rock
Bengals-Ravens Model Player Prop
Trenton Irwin O/U 3.5 Receptions
With my pick out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on one of Cincinnati’s backup receivers with Tee Higgins out. Trenton Irwin has just 13 receptions on 17 targets this season, but he earned four targets from Burrow last week.
So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
In this case, the model wants action on Irwin because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at +113, but bet365, a public book, has it all the way up at +145. That’s a steal!
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Bengals-Ravens Player Prop: Trenton Irwin Over 3.5 Receptions Yards +145 at bet365
Bengals-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Tight end Mark Andrews has found paydirt in his last three regular-season starts against the Cincinnati Bengals. He caught five passes for 45 yards and a score in Week 2 of this season, eight for 89 and a score in Week 5 of 2022 and eight for 125 and a score in Week 16 of 2021. That’s some impressive and consistent production from the veteran. Cincinnati’s defense has coughed up four total receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year, which is tied for seventh-most in the NFL. Houston’s Dalton Schultz racked up 71 yards but was held scoreless last week. A week before, Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid racked up 81 yards but was held out of the end zone as well. Look for Andrews to buck that trend.
The Ravens have a fairly predictable red-zone offense, at least as far as touch distribution goes. Power back Gus Edwards will get almost every carry inside the five-yard line — he has nine of them on the year, seven of which went for scores. Lamar Jackson is a threat to scramble in the red zone but has scored just five times on 23 total attempts inside the 20. If he throws the ball, it’s probably going to Andrews, who has a team-high 13 red-zone targets (31.7% share) and a team-high seven targets inside the 10-yard line (35%). At odds of +155 on FanDuel, I don’t love this pick enough to throw a full unit on it, but I’m happy throwing enough to profit a unit.
Bengals-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Mark Andrews +155 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 11 now!
