The San Francisco 49ers will visit the Philadelphia Eagles for this year’s NFC Championship game. The 49ers, led by rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, may falter against Philadelphia’s elite pass rush. NFL bettors looking for a sharp play on Sunday’s Conference Championships should target this 49ers-Eagles player prop. The books expect a narrow win from the Eagles, and they have left too much value on the player prop markets for Christian McCaffrey. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
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Best 49ers-Eagles Player Prop | Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey O/U 4.5 Receptions
Purdy, a rookie quarterback, must now face Philadelphia’s elite pass rush. The Eagles ranked second in pressure percentage (25.5%) and first in team pass-rush win rate (52%). That could make Purdy’s life difficult on Sunday, and as a result, he may opt to get rid of the ball quickly by targeting players for short-yardage gains. That means plenty of targets for running back Christian McCaffrey.
The San Francisco 49ers just played the Dallas Cowboys, the one team to generate more pressure than the Eagles this year. Purdy frequently checked down to McCaffrey in that game — the star running back caught six of eight targets for 22 yards. McCaffrey has caught at least five passes in eight of his 13 games with the San Francisco 49ers, and he owns an impressive 77.4% route participation rate in the playoffs.
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Although the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t done much poorly on defense, they have allowed plenty of receptions to opposing running backs. They have given up the 13th-most receptions per game to the position (5.1). Recent box scores bear this out — Tony Pollard caught six passes against them in Week 16, David Montgomery caught three in Week 15 and AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones combined for six receptions in Week 12.
The odds for this prop vary across the market. Caesars has the over set to +102. FanDuel has it at +104. But several other books, including DraftKings Sportsbook, have it all the way up at +110. McCaffrey has far better odds of securing at least five receptions than the books believe, and bettors should head to DraftKings for the best price — those who are yet to register can even secure $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best NFL 49ers-Eagles Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (+110 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
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