The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will meet in Orchard Park., N.Y., for Sunday afternoon’s Divisional Round matchup. NFL bettors looking for a sharp play on the action should target this Bengals-Bills player prop. The books expect a one-score win from the Bills, but they have left too much value on the player prop markets for Joe Burrow. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
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Best Bengals-Bills NFL Player Prop | Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow Prop O/U 12.5 Rushing Yards
Cincinnati’s quarterback, Joe Burrow, isn’t known for his rushing abilities. The talented passer threw for 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns this season. Those numbers are far more impressive than the 257 rushing yards he compiled on 75 attempts. But with Cincinnati’s offensive line missing three starters — left tackle Jonah Williams, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins — Burrow may have to make some plays with his legs.
Burrow averaged 16 yards per game this year, slightly more than this total, but only finished with 13-plus yards in six games. Those games correspond to times when Burrow faced pressure in the pocket. Burrow faced pressure on 21.5% of his dropbacks in Week 1 and scampered for 47 yards. He faced pressure on 28.9% of his dropbacks in Week 2 and racked up 26 yards. The Falcons and Saints also pressured Burrow on 19% or more of his dropbacks, and he responded with 20 and 25 rushing yards, respectively.
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Burrow’s strong games on the ground also correspond to narrow, competitive contests. The Bengals lost four regular-season games and won another four by just one score. Five of Burrow’s games with 13-plus rushing yards came in those eight games. With the Bills listed as 5.5-point favorites, Burrow may end up scrambling more than expected. It helps that Sunday’s forecast calls for snow, which could lead him to keep the ball on the ground instead of attempting a few aggressive throws downfield.
The sportsbooks have set Burrow’s rushing yardage prop from anywhere between 10.5 to 12.5. Books that have it on the lower end have, unsurprisingly, stacked the juice on the under. But the two-yard difference between the 10.5 and 12.5 isn’t worth the 6.23% in implied probability, so bettors should play the higher line at DraftKings Sportsbook. New users at DraftKings can secure $200 in bonus bets by simply placing a $5 wager. Bettors in Ohio can access that promotion through this link instead.
Best NFL Bengals-Bills Player Prop: Joe Burrow Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-105 for 0.53 Unit) at DraftKings
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