The Miami Dolphins will head up to Orchard Park, N.Y., for a date with the Buffalo Bills. The injury to Tua Tagovailoa means that Skylar Thompson will start, and that’s bad news for Miami’s offense. Thompson has thrown just one touchdown on 146 total passing attempts. Bettors looking for the best Dolphins-Bills NFL player prop should tail the below pick — the books have left too much value player prop markets for Skylar Thompson. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
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Best Dolphins-Bills NFL Player Prop | Skylar Thompson
Skylar Thompson Prop O/U 0.5 Passing Touchdowns
The sportsbooks are treating Skylar Thompson with a bit too much kindness. Miami’s third-string quarterback owns odds north of -200 — 66.7% — to throw a touchdown pass on Sunday. But Thompson has thrown just one in his professional career, and he now must face a tough Buffalo defense that ranks 11th in expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt (-0.01) and 13th in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.3).
Thompson has struggled to get points on the board despite the presence of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Although both players can take short-yardage throws to the house, Thompson is yet to make the most of the talented duo. He threw for only 89 yards in his first-ever start for the Dolphins after the team swapped Teddy Bridgewater back in. He then racked up 152 yards against the Jets in his next start. Thompson’s lone touchdown came in relief of Bridgewater in Week 17 on a four-yard pass to Mike Gesicki.
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The sportsbooks do not expect much from the Dolphins. Miami is a 13.5-point underdog at most books, and with the betting total set to 43.5, Vegas expects the Dolphins to score only 15 points. That doesn’t leave Thompson with much — if any — margin for error. With Teddy Bridgewater listed as questionable, an early mistake by Thompson could lead head coach Mike McDaniel to give the banged-up veteran a turn. Miami’s season does hang in the balance, after all.
Bettors can get the best price on this prop at BetMGM. Thompson sits at a whopping +175 to not throw a touchdown pass in Sunday’s Dolphins-Bills game. Other books have this prop as low as +160. New users at BetMGM can even secure $200 if any team scores a touchdown during the NFL playoffs. Bettors should head there quickly before the book adjusts its price.
Best NFL Dolphins-Bills Player Prop: Skylar Thompson Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+175 for 0.5) at BetMGM
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