Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is drawing a lot of interest from the betting community ahead of his first career playoff start. With just hours to go before the Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup, let’s take a look at one Justin Herbert NFL prop bet you should be setting your sights on.
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NFL Prop Bets: Best Justin Herbert Prop Bet for Chargers-Jaguars
Using our Stokastic NFL Player Props tool, Justin Herbert should be faded on Saturday afternoon. According to the models, the UNDER 281.5 passing yards (DraftKings) has value. Stokastic projects Herbert to finish with 275.1 passing yards, giving the under an expected win percentage of 57%. The ROI of 6% is the highest of any Justin Herbert prop on the board.
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Justin Herbert comes into the NFL Playoffs after securing another solid season amid his rise to stardom. The third-year pro ranks second this year behind just Patrick Mahomes in passing yards (4,739), good for 278.8 yards per game. But he failed to get over the 281-yard plateau in each of the last three games of the season. Herbert will also be without receiver Mike Williams, who was ruled out with a back injury earlier in the week.
Williams led the Chargers with 895 receiving yards in 13 games, and proved to pad Herbert’s stats when inserted into the lineup. The Chargers offense averaged 3.5 points and 50-plus yards per game more with Williams in the lineup this season. Herbert threw for more than 280 yards just once without Williams at his disposal, and that came against a Las Vegas Raiders team that ranks 29th in passing yards allowed.
Although the Jaguars have also struggled to defend the pass this season, they’ve been a bit better of late — allowing less than 280 yards through the air in each of their last five games.
It might be hard to fade someone with the firepower of Justin Herbert, but with such a high number, there is value in the under on his passing yards prop.
Be sure to check out OddsShopper tools for the best odds on all moneylines, spreads, and player props for the NFL Playoffs.
Best Chargers-Jaguars Prop: Justin Herbert UNDER 281.5 passing yards.
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