The Saturday triple-header is upon us! The NFL has a wide range of action over the course of three games for Saturday’s slate, from the battle of the backups to another battle of the backups, to a suddenly hot Broncos team looking for an upset in Detroit. Each game has great value for a first touchdown play, in some cases playing around injury or just chaos at the quarterback position. Here are the best NFL first touchdown picks for Saturday’s Vikings-Bengals, Steelers-Colts and Broncos-Lions games.
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Vikings-Bengals First Touchdown Picks
Minnesota Vikings First Touchdown Scorer
Go with what’s most consistent when playing a team experiencing as much chaos as the Vikings. Despite the change at quarterback, now two times over, the loss of Justin Jefferson and just about anything else that could go wrong in a 3-0 victory, T.J. Hockenson remains dangerous. Nick Mullens is going to either have an incredible talent in Jefferson return from injury or not, and neither should impact the Vikings tight end from getting looks.
It makes sense for Mullens to take advantage of softer spots in the field, where Hockenson can gain an advantage. He’s also scored a touchdown in three of the last six games. If Jefferson plays, expect the Bengals to overcompensate. If Jefferson remains out, we’ve already seen Hockenson produce as the No. 1 target. He’s due for a score on Saturday, so jump on it being the first.
Vikings-Bengals First Touchdown Picks: T.J. Hockenson +1200 at bet365 for 0.25 Units
Steelers-Colts First Touchdown Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers First Touchdown Scorer
It looks like T.J. Watt is trending towards playing, which is monumental for a team that’s just 1-10 without him. It’s safe to say the Steelers need Watt to be in this football game. They stand a significantly better chance of slowing down the Colts with Watt on the field, which is super helpful for a first touchdown prop in this game. That should give the Steelers a couple of cracks at the Colts defense, and even with Mitchell Trubisky, the Steelers should score first.
Pittsburgh comes off ridiculous losses to both Arizona and New England, but the one constant was Diontae Johnson catching a touchdown pass. There’s a rather simple formula to follow here that does move away from the chalk running backs. The Steelers should stop the Colts, giving Pittsburgh first crack — or second — at the game’s first touchdown. Also, their backup quarterback has a proven connection with Johnson. Bet Johnson at 14-1 on FanDuel to score first.
Steelers-Colts First Touchdown Picks: Diontae Johnson +1400 at FanDuel for 0.25 Units
Broncos-Lions First Touchdown Picks
Detroit Lions First Touchdown Scorer
Everything seems to be trending in Denver’s favor ahead of this Saturday night matchup. The Broncos are 3-0-1 in the last four road games after a road game and 6-1 against the spread in the second of back-to-backs as road dogs. Detroit just hasn’t looked the same as of late, dropping two of its last three.
If the Broncos are going to knock off Detroit, it’s going to be in a higher-scoring affair — one that kicks off with the Lions scoring first. Denver is the worst team in the NFL at stopping the run, but its defense hasn’t given up more than 22 points over its last eight games. It defines bend but don’t break. Teams like this tend to overcompensate when struggling as bad as Denver is against the run, but those numbers also include earlier in the year — like when it gave up 70 points.
Denver’s secondary will be picked on early, and the Lions will get Amon-Ra St. Brown the ball. Expect Jared Goff to try to right the ship by going to a familiar target, including for the first score of the game. Either Detroit marches right down and scores first or it gets a stop at home. Either way, that first touchdown ball is going to St. Brown.
Broncos-Lions First Touchdown Picks: Amon-Ra St. Brown +1000 at FanDuel for 0.25 Units
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