With two weeks left in the NFL season, player prop betting is going to require a keen eye on team motivations. This week features some high-end teams that are locked into postseason spots and other playoff-bound teams that could move up or down, so do not just assume good teams are going to rest their best players in Week 17.
With that said, OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder has a great player prop parlay from BetMGM today, utilizing the Prop Party setting. Check out this video from Eytan Shander where he shows how to use the Prop Party as well as all of the other settings the parlay builder has to offer.
Best NFL Parlay Player Props for Week 17
Latavius Murray UNDER 45.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Latavius Murray has been a popular play in Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections the last few weeks thanks to the Denver Broncos running back situation. However, that switch has flipped with all the tumult in the Broncos organization, not the least of which was them firing their coach. With Nathaniel Hackett at the helm, Murray was a key contributor; he went over this line in four of the past six, including 130 yards rushing in Week 15. But with a new head coach and possibly an entirely different game plan, Murray’s usage is no longer safe.
In last week’s throttling at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams, the Broncos backfield had a fairly even split between Murray, Chase Edmonds and Marlon Mack. They saw eight, six and four carries, respectively, and none went for more than 34 yards. Of course, that game was a blowout in the second quarter and Denver had to pass a lot, but guess what has a decent chance of happening this week?
Denver has to travel to one of the hardest places to play in the NFL at the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Broncos are 12.5-point underdogs. Denver projects to be down, which leads to them needing to pass more, which leads to Murray projecting under here. This player prop has Stokastic’s highest win percentage and expected ROI on the Sunday slate.
Cam Akers UNDER 69.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Cam Akers’ line is a clear overreaction to his Week 16 performance against Denver. Again, the Rams got up big early in that game, so they were able to turn to the run. As a result, Akers went for more than double his season carry average and churned out 118 yards. Other than that, he has not once gone for 70 in any other game this season, and the Rams backfield has been Akers’ alone for six weeks now.
With the Rams taking on their intracity rival Los Angeles Chargers this week, very little about the projected game script suggests another run-heavy game from Sean McVay. The Chargers still have plenty to play for despite clinching a playoff spot (they could get a sub-.500 opponent in Round 1 if they surpass Baltimore for the No. 5 seed), and they have an explosive passing offense with which the Rams will need to keep pace.
Stokastic projects Akers for 63.3 yards in this one, placing the expected win rate on his under well above 70%. And for those of you in Ohio, in preparation for sports betting starting off in your state, BetMGM is has a post-launch deal for you! In addition to the usual no-brainer deal with BetMGM — Bet $10 and win $200 — they are also offering first bet insurance up to $1,000 paid in site credit!
Daniel Jones UNDER 214.5 Yards Passing (-120)
Daniel Jones is coming off one of his best passing performances of the season, when the New York Giants quarterback threw for 334 yards on 42 attempts, and this line — while pretty modest for a competent quarterback — has gone a little too high as a result. Keep in mind that his strong performance came against the Minnesota Vikings, the team that has allowed more yards passing than any in the NFL. All told, Jones has hit this over only four times in 15 tries this season.
And while the matchup with the Indianapolis Colts suggests the Giants may win comfortably — and they absolutely should — Jones’ passing numbers are far less likely to contribute to that result. The Indianapolis pass defense is actually strong (especially compared to the weaknesses of the rest of the team), ranking 11th in the NFL in yards passing allowed and holding some considerably better passers than Jones under this line. Meanwhile, the Colts run defense is in the bottom half of the league. With that in mind, and with the Giants somewhat likely to build a lead, Saquon Barkley and the New York running game should feature more strongly.
As of writing, Stokastic projects Jones for a hair under 200 yards Sunday.
