Who doesn’t love to sweat NFL player prop bets? Waiting for Jared Goff to throw for an extra 10 passing yards — or hoping Christian McCaffrey doesn’t pick up another 15 yards with his legs — makes watching an already-fun game that much more entertaining. These are a few of our top NFL player prop bets on the board for Week 3, including picks for Kirk Cousins, Breece Hall and, well, Jared Goff.
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Best NFL Week 3 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Breece Hall, Kirk Cousins & More
Today’s Top NFL & Sportsbook Promotions
Falcons-Lions Week 3 Player Prop
Jared Goff Prop O/U 267.5 Passing Yards
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
How good do you think the Jared Goff-led Detroit Lions really are? Goff has looked better than I expected at the helm of Dan Campbell’s Lions, but people have over-adjusted their priors on the former first-overall pick. Goff is averaging 263.9 passing yards per game with the Lions, yet you’ll find him listed with a prop total of a monstrous 263.9 passing yards. He has cleared that number in just seven of his 19 starts for the Lions.
Sunday’s matchup with the new-look Falcons defense is a tougher one than most realize. Atlanta held Bryce Young to 146 passing yards in Week 1 and Jordan Love to 151 in Week 2. More importantly, Atlanta’s defense ranks second in yards allowed per pass attempt (4.2). At that rate, Goff would need to try 64 passes just to get the over. He is averaging 35 attempts per game.
The Falcons are reaping the benefits of a number of free-agent acquisitions, some in the secondary, and some in the trenches. Safety Jessie Bates III owns an elite PFF grade of 93.3 through two games. His presence has helped cornerback A.J. Terrell, who looked great as a rookie but struggled last year. Terrell currently owns a PFF grade of 72.4. He has coughed up just five receptions on 15 targets for only 45 yards.
In the trenches, free-agent defensive tackle David Onyemata and free-agent edge rusher Bud Dupree have combined to generate five pressures. Onyemata even ranks fourth among all defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate, slightly ahead of his 15th-ranked teammate, Grady Jarrett. Expect them all to cause problems for Jared Goff on Sunday afternoon.
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Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet: Jared Goff Under 267.5 Passing Yards -115 at BetMGM
Patriots-Jets Week 3 Player Prop
Breece Hall O/U 43.5 Rushing Yards
Expert: Justin Martin
I’m not particularly eager to buy into off-the-field narratives, but Breece Hall voicing his frustration on social media after New York’s Week 2 loss makes me believe he’ll be running with a chip on his shoulder come Sunday. His tweet insinuated that he needs the ball more than four times a game to be productive. It makes sense after his Week 1 showing, where he broke off an 83-yard run on his way to finishing with 127 rushing yards. The game script didn’t do Hall much justice, as the Jets found themselves behind early. But against the Patriots, we should see a different story.
The New York defense has the makings to keep them in every game. The Jets have one of the best secondaries in the league, and they’ve got a daunting defensive front doing work in front of them. The New York offense has found themselves at the bottom of the NFL in time of possession. They’ve registered the third-fewest first-down opportunities in large part due to not extending drives. Quarterback Zach Wilson has to lean on Hall and Dalvin Cook early in drives to find any success.
Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert ran like a track star last Sunday Night against the Patriots. He totaled 121 yards on 18 carries, with the Dolphins winning the time of possession battle. Don’t expect 18 carries for Hall, who is still being gradually integrated after an ACL tear last year, but DraftKings has Hall’s rushing attempt line set at 9.5 with the juice on the over — more than enough to cash this total of 44 rushing yards. This AFC East showdown has the lowest total of any game on the Sunday slate. Expect both teams to rely on the run game and aim to win the time of possession battle.
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Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet: Breece Hall Over 43.5 Rushing Yards -115 at DraftKings
Chargers-Vikings Week 3 Player Prop
Kirk Cousins O/U 24.5 Passing Completions
Expert: Justin Martin
Two of the league’s most explosive offenses will go head-to-head on Sunday. Ironically enough, one of these teams will fall to 0-3. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot countless times in Week 2 against the Eagles, while the Chargers allowed 27 points to the woeful Tennesse Titans. With the highest total on the slate, we’ll go square here and back Kirk Cousins at home against a Chargers defense that allowed Ryan Tannehill to complete 83% of his passes in Week 2.
We’re trusting Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense to put up points in a hurry against the Vikings for this player prop bet to cash. That should be no issue, as Herbert has been magical through the first two games. His 102 passer rating ranks in the top 10 of all quarterbacks to start the season, and he has yet to turn the ball over. Running back Austin Ekeler is unlikely to play after once again not practicing on Friday.
The Chargers tried all they could to get the running game going last week with Joshua Kelly but were unsuccessful. He registered just 39 yards on 13 carries. I expect the Chargers to make an effort to get the running game going against the Vikings, who allowed Eagles running back D’Andre Swift to run wild against them. Still, the offense will run through Herbert, targeting reliable Keenan Allen to move the chains.
As for the Chargers, the Vikings’ running game has been putrid. Alexander Mattison is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, which has resulted in the Vikings trading for former Rams running back Cam Akers. Akers won’t suit up for Minnesota on Sunday, but the point is that Mattison may not be built to carry a full workload, which was a concern heading into this season. In his defense, he has faced off against elite run defenses, which the Chargers are not. Nonetheless, the bread and butter of this offense is Cousins dishing the ball out to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Cousins has soared over this line in both games to start the season and in half of the games dating back to last season.
Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet: Kirk Cousins Over 24.5 Passing Completions -115 at DraftKings
Panthers-Seahawks Week 3 Player Prop
Andy Dalton O/U 210.5 Passing Yards
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
The Carolina Panthers will start Andy Dalton against the Seattle Seahawks this weekend, and, laugh at me all you want, but I expect some solid offensive play out of the journeyman quarterback. He averaged 205.1 passing yards per game last year, which, you know, wasn’t good, but he also draws a matchup with a banged-up and soft Seattle defense. With a line of 210.5, he doesn’t even need to have that good of a game.
Seattle’s defense has struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks, and things will only get worse this week. The Seahawks are coughing up a miserable 328.5 passing yards per game on the third-most yards allowed per pass attempt (8.9) through two games. Worse, boundary cornerback Riq Woolen is doubtful this week, and slot cornerback Coby Bryant is out. Safeties Quandre Diggs, Julian Love and Jamal Adams are all questionable.
The Panthers don’t have a ton of excellent receiving options, but the assortment of Hayden Hurts, D.J. Chark, Adam Thielen and rookie Jonathan Mingo should be enough for Dalton to exploit a vulnerable secondary. Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff both went for 310-plus yards against Seattle in Weeks 1 and 2, so why can’t Dalton go for 210-plus in Week 3? This is just too low of a number for an experienced quarterback playing a bad secondary.
Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet: Andy Dalton Over 210.5 Passing Yards -115 at DraftKings
Cardinals-Cowboys Week 3 Player Prop
Josh Dobbs O/U 14.5 Rushing Yards
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Before you complain about me targeting three of the least exciting quarterbacks on the slate — Jared Goff, Andy Dalton and Josh Dobbs — remember that the best betting values are often found in the most overlooked places. Nobody cares about Dobbs, especially not against this Dallas Cowboys defense, but they probably should. Dobbs has been plucky through two games, especially on the ground, where he is averaging three carries and 19 yards per game. That isn’t a ton, but when his prop total is set to 14.5, it’s enough.
Dobbs isn’t a dual-threat quarterback, but he is athletic enough to go over this number. He is averaging 3.5 attempts for 20.5 rushing yards from his time as Tennessee’s starter last year to his time as Arizona’s this year. A few of those are tracked as designed runs, but five are counted as scrambles, and he is averaging an impressive 11.5 rushing yards per scramble through that sample. He now gets an aggressive Dallas defense that will certainly force him out of the pocket.
Although the Cowboys do a lot well, they don’t prevent opposing quarterbacks from picking up yards with their legs. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most rushing attempts (18) and yards (79) to quarterbacks. Last year, they coughed up the 14th-fewest rushing attempts (65) but the 14th-most yards (327) — good for 19.3 per game. If Zach Wilson can run for 36 and Daniel Jones can run for 43, Dobbs should be good for at least 15.
Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bet: Josh Dobbs Over 14.5 Rushing Yards -110 at BetMGM
