As we close out 2023, there’s one thing left to do, and that’s party with PrizePicks! We have an extra-large 13-game main slate for Week 17 as there is no Monday Night Football game. The action kicks off with the two best teams in the AFC fighting for home-field advantage and a first-round bye. If the Dolphins win and end up tied with the Ravens, they will get the bye due to the head-to-head tiebreaker, so there is a lot on the line in this game. The Ravens are favored by 3 points, while it has a healthy spread of 46.5 points. With multiple teams still in the playoff hunt and just two games to go, we should have an exciting last day of 2023! Let’s kick off Sunday’s PrizePicks NFL card with Tua Tagovailoa. Selecting the right projections may be challenging, but with the assistance of OddsShopper’s NFL PrizePicks Optimizer and thorough research, we’ve got you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NFL picks and player projections for New Year’s Eve.
PrizePicks NFL Player Predictions: Picks for Tua Tagovailoa & More
Tua Tagovailoa M/L 21.5 Completions
The Dolphins will rely on Tua Tagovailoa to will them to a victory over the first-place Ravens and give them a shot at the first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. Tua leads the NFL with 4,214 passing yards and a 70.5 completion percentage (Jake Browning is at 72% but has less than half of Tua’s attempts). Meanwhile, the Ravens lead the NFL in total defense, allowing just 16.3 points per game. However, their defense forces teams to pass, often in come-from-behind mode. The Ravens allow the second most pass attempts to quarterbacks at 38.4 per game. In their last three games, they have allowed 43, 42, and 37 passing attempts to Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford.
Tua’s attempts projection is listed at 34, and if you do the math, that leaves him with a 63 percent completion rate, well below his 70.5 average. We can see that every other operator is juiced to the over up to -145. Tua goes for 22 or more!
Best PrizePicks NFL Player Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa More Than 21.5 Pass Completions
Tyjae Spears M/L 14.5 Receiving Yards
Tyjae Spears is the number one rated play on OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool right now. Coming in with a 12% EV and a 61% xWIN rate, this over on this projection has -154 true odds.
Spears averages 21 receiving yards per game on the season and has played 37 or more snaps in five of the last seven games. The Titans played the Texans just two weeks ago, and Spears had just one catch on one target for seven yards. That game was a defensive battle where the Texans prevailed 19-16, and Titans’ quarterback Will Levis got sacked seven times and threw just 26 passes. On the season, the Texans rank just 21st in receiving yards allowed to the running back position. In addition, with the Titans now eliminated from the playoffs, we could see Derek Henry give up some snaps to Spears.
Best PrizePicks NFL Player Prediction: Tyjae Spears More Than 14.5 Receiving yards
If you’re looking for some other pick’em action this weekend, Sleeper Fantasy has a pick on sale for Jordan Love on Sunday Night Football. All he needs is to record one passing yard and this pick is a winner! Remember, you need at least two picks for a successful Sleeper Fantasy entry, and if you’re looking to find the highest-EV Sleeper Fantasy picks, OddsShopper Premium has the No. 1 pick’em projections out there! Click here to see if Sleeper Fantasy is legal in your state.
Jalen Hurts M/L 250.5 Passing Yards
The Eagles are looking for another win to clinch the NFC East over the Cowboys, and this matchup is just what they need. They rank 6th in rushing yards and average just 232 passing yards per game. Arizona ranks 12th in passing yards allowed because they funnel to the run where they allow a league-worst 147 rushing yards per game. The Eagles rank fifth in rushing attempts per game, and in their last three games, have run the third most rushing plays in the NFL. All signs leading to Jalen Hurts passing less.
The books have this projection ranging from 243.5 to 250.5, while one of the sharper books, Pinnacle, is heavy on the under for 250.5, so we are getting good value at -121 true odds. The Eagles want to win this game easily; they stick to running the ball with D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Hurts and slow the game down. They are 11.5-point favorites after all.
Best PrizePicks NFL Player Prediction: Jalen Hurts Less Than 250.5 Passing Yards
