The NFL Playoffs get underway this weekend, and the Sunday slate of action has three games. Using the Stokastic projections and tools, here are the top PrizePicks NFL player props to target ahead of the Sunday.
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Best PrizePicks NFL Player Props
Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
The Cincinnati Bengals enter Wild Card Weekend as 8.5-point home favorites over the Baltimore Ravens in a game with a 40.5 total. This game will be a Week 18 rematch and the third time these teams meet this season. Cincinnati dropped the first meeting but won the second by a score of 27-16. The Ravens played without quarterback Lamar Jackson, which projects to be the case again here.
Now fully healthy on offense, the Bengals have won eight straight games to reach this position. Quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 270 yards or more in four of those games, though he and threw for only 215 yards on 42 attempts last week. Eight receptions and 86 of those yards went to Ja’Marr Chase. While Chase missed a portion of the year with a hip injury, he dominated targets when healthy. In the 12 games he played, Chase accounted for a 29.3% target share and 37.4% of the team’s air yards. For reference, Tee Higgins notched a 20.8% target share and 31.2% air yards share, and Tyler Boyd had a 13.8% target share and 18.8% of the air yards. Chase has seen at least eight targets in every game since his return and at least 11 targets in each of the last four games.
The clear target alpha on this team, Chase projects for 85.1 yards receiving in the Stokastic projections. Higgins (56.5) and Boyd (33.5) also show a bit of value towards the overs on their receiving props. With Trenton Irwin playing less in high leverage situations, this makes sense.
Adam Thielen Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
The Minnesota Vikings will host the New York Giants as 3-point favorites in a game with a 48 total. the Vikings rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed to opposing passers, keeping them in shootout situations. The Giants also rank 31st in pass coverage, per PFF, creating an environment conducive to an aerial shootout.
As for the individual components, Justin Jefferson dominates the Minnesota offense. However, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn have both accounted for spike weeks throughout the year. Now heading into the playoffs, this looks like a strong time to buy Thielen as the team’s WR2. On the year, Thielen finished with a 16.7% target share and a 21.5% air yards share. Both of these metrics bested Osborn, who finished with a 14% target share and 15.6% target share.
Thielen has remained the WR2 in terms of snaps and routes despite his recent struggles. He hasn’t eclipsed 20 yards receiving in the last three games. However, Thielen continues to run more routes than Osborn, with the exception of Week 18. In that game, Thielen left with the rest of the starters, while Osborn continued to play with the backups. With the Stokastic projections taking everything into consideration, Thielen still projects for 46.8 yards, making him a value towards the over.
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Isaiah McKenzie Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
Buffalo draws division rival Miami as a 13-point favorite in a game with a 43.5 total. Miami will play this game without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, leading to the lopsided spread. The Bills split this series in the regular season, winning the most recent game 32-29, with Josh Allen throwing for 304 yards and four touchdowns.
While the Stokastic projections show slight value towards the over on Allen’s passing prop, it appears the pass catchers may provide more value. In particular, WR3 Isaiah McKenzie looks slightly under-projected on the platform. On the year, McKenzie accounts for a 12.8% target share and a 12.3% air yards share. While this may seem underwhelming at first glance, McKenzie has played an increased role down the stretch.
Over the last six games, McKenzie averages 5.0 targets and 34 receiving yards per game. His route share has also been comparable to the other studs. While McKenzie doesn’t play as many raw snaps as the team’s slot receiver, he still ran 27 of 37 routes last week. For reference, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis ran 32 and 31 routes each. With this in mind, the projections peg McKenzie for 35.4 yards receiving.
