At DraftKings Sportsbook, you’ve been able to make wagers on a team’s wins and playoff odds since early in the offseason. I already locked in a five-unit nuke shorting the Tennessee Titans on the win total markets, and after a few weeks of line movement, I’m now turning my gaze to the NFL playoff futures odds to make another bet. DraftKings projects the Baltimore Ravens for a 56.5% chance of making the playoffs, well below what both I and other books project them for next season. Check out OddsShopper’s tools and articles for additional smart plays.
NFL Playoff Future Bets for 2023 | Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to Make the Playoffs
The Baltimore Ravens own the sixth-best odds of making the playoffs in the AFC next year at a price of -130 (56.5%). The five teams with a better shot to make the playoffs are the Kansas City Chiefs (-450), Cincinnati Bengals (-285), Jacksonville Jaguars (-250), Buffalo Bills (-240) and the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets (-150). Leaving Baltimore behind those five teams ignores both the team’s new-look offense and its elite defense; other sportsbooks have more appropriately priced this bet in the -160 (61.5%) range.
The Ravens made some crucial moves after these markets opened that should’ve driven this price up. The front office finally reached a deal with Jackson and brought in some talented receivers in Nelson Agholor, Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. Combined with the replacement of offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken, the Ravens should be much scarier on offense next year. Roman’s playcalling had long since reached its ceiling in Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign.
Replacing Roman with Monken, who worked as the offensive coordinator of the Georgia Bulldogs last year, promises a new offensive playstyle in Baltimore. Roman’s Ravens ranked third in rushing play percentage last year (50.2%). Monken’s most recent NFL offense, the 2019 Cleveland Browns, ranked 15th (40.4%). His 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 27th (36.9%). His starting quarterbacks for those teams included Baker Mayfield, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston, so Jackson is by far the best quarterback he’s had to work with.
The wholesale changes to Baltimore’s stale offense will complement an elite defense. Roman’s scheme frustrated players but still ranked 12th in Football Outsider’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and 17th in expected points added (EPA) per play. The unit did so despite Jackson’s late-season absence. The defense, led by coordinator Mike Macdonald, ranked seventh in defensive DVOA. The unit also surged to eighth in EPA allowed per play after Baltimore’s Week 10 bye.
Macdonald’s defense retained its core pieces. Star linebacker Roquan Smith will now have a full offseason to gel with the unit. His arrival helped bring out the strengths of fellow linebacker Patrick Queen while minimizing Queen’s weaknesses. Last offseason’s acquisitions at safety, Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton, should help anchor a feisty secondary alongside Marlon Humphrey. Those five players ended the season with PFF grades of 70 or higher. Losing cornerback Marcus Peters may hurt, but the team added Rock Ya-Sin to replace him, and they haven’t ruled out bringing Peters back later.
The market at DraftKings hasn’t responded to Baltimore’s successful offseason. Backing the Ravens to make the playoffs will cost you -160 at Caesars and -150 at BetMGM. If you’re still not sold on Baltimore, check out the list of their future regular-season opponents, which includes teams like the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams, Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals. Jump on the -130 before it disappears. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5 moneyline wager.
Best NFL Playoff Futures Bet: Ravens Yes -130 for 2.6 Units at DraftKings
Isaiah’s 2023 NFL Futures:
