The NFL win total markets are up at DraftKings Sportsbook. A handful of teams opened with numbers that I think are off, but no team opened with a worse number than the Tennessee Titans. They’re coming off a 7-10 season that saw them lose their final seven games, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South. The books project the Titans for 7.5 wins, one to two more wins than what I project them for next season. Check out OddsShopper’s tools and articles for additional smart plays.
NFL Win Total Bets for 2023 | Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans O/U 7.5 Wins
The Tennessee Titans’ recent moves suggest they are operating with a longer-term view in mind. They fired their general manager midseason last year and replaced him with Ran Carthon, formerly the director of player personnel for the San Francisco 49ers, in January. Carthon had held the position for two seasons after getting promoted from director of pro personnel. Carthon is unlikely to stick with 34-year-old quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and several other veterans could be on the chopping block.
It’s fair to expect the Titans will have a worse roster at the start of the 2023 season than the one they have now. Star safety and leading tackler Kevin Byard declined to take a pay cut this offseason, and he may end up either cut or traded. The team was rumored to have shown interest in other quarterbacks this offseason, likely because they could save $17.8 million in salary cap space by cutting Tannehill, whose contract will expire at the end of the season. Carton has denied shopping the team’s star running back, Derrick Henry, but the 29-year-old best days are likely behind him.
The Titans did not act like a win-now team in free agency. The team released veterans brought in by the last regime, like pass rusher Bud Dupree, who ranked fifth on the team in sacks in 2022 (4) after playing 11 games. The team released wide receiver Robert Woods and let tight end Austin Hooper walk in free agency. Those two had combined for the first- and second-most targets and receptions last year. Center Ben Jones, who recorded an impressive PFF grade of 71.9 in 2022, also found himself cut by the team, along with veteran left tackle Taylor Lewan. No big-name free agents took their places.
The Titans don’t have much draft capital to address their newfound needs. They have six total picks: the 11th, 41st, 72nd, 147th, 186th and 228th draft choices. The Titans did not receive a compensatory selection and did not lose enough games to score a top-10 pick. With so many holes to fill, Carthon may opt to trade down — especially since the few quarterback options available in this year’s class may already be off the board. The Titans still control all of their 2024 selections, so punting one season to secure better prospects next year could be in the cards.
The one argument against fading the Titans is their schedule. Tennessee plays in the AFC South, one of the worst divisions in the NFL. They’ll also play the entire NFC South and AFC North. Quarterback questions abound among those divisions, but the Titans certainly aren’t in a much better position than most of their opponents. The Jacksonville Jaguars are trending up, and savvy moves by the Indianapolis Colts or Houston Texas could thrust them into contender status. The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons could also look much more threatening after the draft.
Let’s buy the Titans to stay under 7.5 wins at -125 via DraftKings Sportsbook. The team ended last season ranked 23rd in defense-adjusted value over average (-9.2%) and 21st in estimated wins (7.2). After an offseason full of cutbacks, the Titans are unlikely to improve in either of those metrics next year. Buying in at this number now allows us to dodge any line movement that may happen if the Titans choose to sell more aggressively during the 2023 NFL Draft. Readers yet to register at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5 moneyline wager.
Best NFL Win Total Bet: Tennessee Titans Under 7.5 Wins (-125 for 5 Units) at DraftKings
