Much has changed in the world of the Los Angeles Chargers over the past month. From watching star QB Justin Herbert go down to ending the tenure of Brandon Staley, there’s been massive disruption to LA’s playoff push. A third straight loss would cement the season as a total failure. Meanwhile the Bills are back from the dead, moving in the opposite direction as the Chargers. The Bills are 8-6 and come off two wins against the Chiefs then Cowboys. Everything points to another Buffalo victory but it’s the NFL and things rarely make sense. Here is the best Same Game Parlay for the Bills-Chargers game!
Bills-Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks Saturday NFL
Los Angeles Chargers +14.5 ALT
There are multiple key numbers in the NFL for margin of victory. We know that 3 is the biggest key number, followed by 7 then 6. What most people think is 10 is next but it’s actually 14. More games land on 14 than 10, so looking at this spread dropping from 13.5 to now 12, we are best pushing it back past 14 to get the hook.
The Chargers have done well as double-digit dogs, covering their last five games in this exact role. It’s the opposite for the Bills who sit just 0-6 ATS in their last six games as double-digit favorites. Last thing to keep in mind, the Bills have struggled in keeping bad teams from bouncing back, going just 1-7 ATS last eight games against teams coming off a 21+ point loss.
Then there’s the Staley element. It’s a little harder to apply here because the Chargers are relying on backup Easton Stick, but we see teams bounce right back after they fire a coach in season. Teams – from players to remaining coaches – will do everything possible to prove to the rest of the world that all the losing wasn’t their fault. It was the guy who just got fired. Teams play a little harder when coming off a firing, it’s rarely the opposite.
Austin Ekeler O/U 36.5 Receiving Yards (NFL Player Prop)
It’s been a disappointment overall in LA but maybe non greater than the season Austin Ekeler is enduring. The Chargers all purpose back has failed to hit 37 rushing yards three of his last four games but faces a fantastic matchup too good to avoid. Be it injury, poor play, or a healthy combination of both, the Bills struggle when it comes to opposing running backs. Buffalo is giving up an average of 4.6 yards per rush, something the Chargers should exploit right away.
Getting Ekeler involved on the ground is the best way to take off pressure on Stick. Running Ekeler makes sense with Herbert in, so even more so against this defense and with a backup qb. Buffalo is going to be so focused on slowing down Ekeler out of the backfield that the run game will look almost neglected. This number should be upwards to 40+ yards, so let’s jump on this before everyone else realizes how bad the Bills are against the run.
Play Smarter. Win More.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (NFL Player Prop)
Yes, we go back to the Josh Allen well one more time as the number still makes sense in this parlay. As rough as the Bills are against the run, it’s no secret how bad the Chargers have been. They are dead last against the pass so sitting 18th overall against the run doesn’t look that bad, but the numbers tell just part of the story. They give up big plays and struggle with big, mobile guys like Allen. The Bills have seen now 11 rushing TDs come from their QB in eight of the last nine games.
The Chargers are so bad on defense they dont have the ability to just pick up one area. If the Bills are going to struggle running the ball then it’s entirely on them, nothing the Chargers will do on some massive adjustment. They are just not good at stopping either the run or pass. Allen is one of the few QBs in the NFL who doesn’t need to only rely on a short yardage sneak to score – although he’s the top option for the Bills on the goal line.
Final NFL Bills-Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks Today
Leg 1: Los Angeles Chargers +14.5 ALT
Leg 2: Austin Ekeler O 36.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Leg 3: Josh Allen Anytime TD (NFL Player Prop)
= +527 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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