After an action-packed Week 1, the NFL opens Week 2 with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Miami Dolphins in a pivotal AFC East battle. We’re here to walk you through a few intriguing prop angles, but if you need more NFL betting advice, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Bills-Dolphins player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Thursday Night Football, including a model pick for James Cook!
Bills-Dolphins Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | TNF
Bills-Dolphins Player Prop Pick for James Cook
Did your NFL player prop betting strategy help you turn a profit in Week 1? If so, congratulations! If not, that’s why we’re here to help. All NFL props featured in articles on our site went 13-4 in Week 1 (I walked through them here), so you can trust that we know what we’re talking about.
Our theme this year is that I want you to place more bets for less money. Your NFL player prop strategy — and sports betting strategy more broadly — should be about building a robust portfolio of diversified bets that win more often than they lose.
Now, let’s discuss how a market-based betting strategy can help you find sharp plays like this James Cook prop.
Cook is often involved as a receiver, and his receptions prop is trading at exactly 2.5 across the market. However, the odds you’ll have to pay for this bet vary substantially.
The under 2.5 will cost you as much as -120 at Fanatics but as little as +115 at BetMGM. With Pinnacle, a sharp book, in the middle at -102, our model finds a slight edge on the under.
Yes, the difference in implied probability across all three books isn’t that wide, but it’s wide enough to warrant exploiting with at least some exposure.
Our proprietary market-based sports betting model tells us that this Cook prop should have odds of +111, not +115. This is enough of a +EV bet for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $7.
Again, more bets, less money. This one bet won’t change your life, but a lot of bets like it wagered over the long run might.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “can’t-miss bets” can unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Keep reading to see how you can take our tools for a spin for 15% off!
Bills-Dolphins Player Prop Model Pick: James Cook Under 2.5 Receptions +115 at BetMGM
Editor’s note: If you’re looking for alternative anytime touchdown plays, Danny Burke is giving away some FREE NFL expert picks over at on his Tails package!
Bills-Dolphins Player Prop Pick for Dalton Kincaid
It was a disappointing Week 1 for tight end Dalton Kincaid, who tallied a mere two receptions for 11 yards in the season opener for the Buffalo Bills. He easily stayed under his receiving yardage prop line of 50.5.
The books have opened the bidding for Kincaid’s receiving yardage between 40.5 and 45.5. Those lines are far too low for a game against this Miami Dolphins defense on short rest.
Last season, Kincaid averaged 42.1 receiving yards per game (he also averaged 52 across two postseason games). This included a four catch, 27-yard showing versus Miami in Week 4 and a seven-catch, 84-yard game at Miami in Week 18.
But perhaps the most encouraging sign for Kincaid was the snap share. He was on the field for 84% of Buffalo’s plays in Week 1, a number he equaled or exceeded just twice in 2023. He also notched a 100% route participation rate.
The targets may not have been there for Kincaid in Week 1, but the Arizona Cardinals clearly were focused on stopping him. Unless the Dolphins do the same, those targets should be there in Week 2. Bet on him to go over 40.5 receiving yards for -115 at Fanatics.
Bills-Dolphins Player Prop Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -115 at Fanatics
Bills-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
We’ve got two of the best, highest-volume touchdown scorers on both sides of the ball with Tyreek Hill and Josh Allen. With Hill as low as -115 and Allen as low as -110 to find paydirt, I had a difficult time not spotlighting either of them.
I’m still going to get some action on at least one of them to score, but instead of writing which one, I want to write about a relative longshot in Jonnu Smith at +500.
With both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert ailing, Miami is likely to turn to Jeff Wilson Jr. or Jaylen Wright a bit more in the ground game. But Smith, a tight end, could actually get involved, too — and he has the best frame for goal-to-go work.
Smith didn’t see much usage in Week 1, tallying a single reception on only 40% of the snaps, but the short week and injuries in the Miami backfield make him an intriguing target at such long odds.
Bills-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Bet: Jonnu Smith +500 at BetMGM
