The Buffalo Bills head across the pond for a date with the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend, and they’re 5.5-point favorites despite the extra travel. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Bills-Jaguars betting odds from London as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Bills-Jaguars Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 5
Bills-Jaguars Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bills: -240 | Jaguars: +198
Bills -5.5: -110 | Jaguars +5.5: -110
Over 48.5: -110 | Under 48.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Bills-Jaguars Pick & Prediction
The Buffalo Bills will head across the pond to play the Jacksonville Jaguars in London this weekend. The Jaguars got a solid win over the Atlanta Falcons here last weekend, and they’ll benefit from not having to do any mid-week international travel. However, they’ll have to face the third-best offense and fourth-best defense by expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, which bodes poorly for their underperforming squad. Jacksonville owns the 24th-best offense and seventh-best defense by EPA, but they have only faced one opponent with a record above .500 this year: the Kansas City Chiefs.
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The Bills just dismantled the Miami Dolphins in Orchard Park last weekend. Buffalo held Miami’s league-leading offense to just 20 points, limiting the elite combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to seven catches for 104 yards and no scores. The Bills also scored 48 points of their own. While Jacksonville’s defense is much tougher than Miami’s, the Bills shouldn’t have much of a problem. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 23rd in pass-rush win rate (37%), which should afford Josh Allen plenty of time to find his receivers downfield — especially since Buffalo’s offensive line ranks eighth in pass-block win rate (62%).
Buffalo’s defense will cause major problems for Jacksonville in London. The Jaguars have gotten away with terrible pass blocking so far — their offensive line ranks an atrocious 29th in pass-block win rate — because of their low-quality opponents. The Colts, Chiefs, Texans and Falcons. Trevor Lawrence has only faced pressure on 23.5% of his dropbacks. Buffalo’s defense ranks 14th in pressure percentage (23.7%) and third in pass-rush win rate (56%), making them the first team the Jaguars will face that’s performing above the league average in both metrics. Lawrence ranks 33rd in pressured completion percentage this year (27.8%) and ranked 14th (43.8%) last year.
The Bills should win this one by at least a touchdown, so I’m thrilled to get under both the key numbers of seven and six. Sure, traveling abroad may have serious consequences for their preparation, especially since head coach Sean McDermott hasn’t been at the helm for any London games thus far, but McDermott is 37-26-4 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite, winning games by an average margin of 9.9, and is 2-0 in neutral-site games. McDermott is also a league-best 38-27-5 ATS in non-division games, the best such record since 2017. I also recommend parlaying Buffalo’s moneyline with Baltimore’s as long as you’re getting odds better than +105 (48.8%).
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Fortunately for bettors who are late to the party, the odds for Sunday’s Bills-Jaguars game haven’t budged. Buffalo remains a 5.5-point favorite as of Saturday. Pregame reports that the Bills have attracted 79% of the cash on 80% of the tickets, so they’re the public team in this spot, but even a broken clock is right twice per day. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the juice stacked in Buffalo’s favor as well. As long as you’re getting under the key numbers of six and seven, Buffalo is a sharp bet to cover the spread on Sunday — especially since safety Jordan Poyer and pass rusher Von Miller will both likely take the field.
Bills-Jaguars NFL Week 5 Pick: Buffalo -5.5 -110 at BetMGM
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