The Buffalo Bills will visit the New York Jets in primetime tonight. Both teams are reeling after disappointing starts, with the Jets already making a move at head coach. While you’re here, I advise reading through our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting to refine your process. Now, let’s dive into our Bills-Jets player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Breece Hall — or click here for more NFL expert picks!
Bills-Jets Player Prop Pick for Breece Hall
This game is one of the most difficult to handicap of the year for props, largely due to the questionable tags that wide receiver Khalil Shakir and running back James Cook have picked up. They’re the top options in this offense at both positions, and without them, the Buffalo offense will look much different.
I recommend sitting out the Buffalo side of this one from a prop perspective. Instead, exploit one definitive injury for the Bills: defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out, which should open up the ground game for New York. Oliver hasn’t been great this season, but his absence will force an even worse DeWayne Carter into action. Carter’s PFF Grade (49.6) trails Oliver’s (54.8).
With less of an interior pass rush (and fewer bodies to rotate on rushing downs), I have some hopes for a rebound game from running back Breece Hall. It certainly helps that linebacker Matt Milano is still on injured reserve while Von Miller is suspended, too, as both absences limit Buffalo’s quality depth in the front seven as well.
Hall’s rushing yardage prop (58.5) is trading for -110 at FanDuel. Most books have this line at 59.5 or 60.5, with Pinnacle charging -113 for the over 58.5. You can find an outlier 56.5 for -117 at BetRivers as well, but they don’t operate in most states. Lock in the over for either one of these lines and hope Buffalo’s offense doesn’t go up early.
Bills-Jets Player Prop Pick: Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards -117 at BetRivers
For more picks like this one from DFSnDonuts (or our other experts), check out Tails by OddsShopper and our free NFL expert picks!
Bills-Jets Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
If we cash this Bills-Jets anytime touchdown prop, you can get 70% off Portfolio EV with code “THATS6” for the 24 hours following the score!
I have a few simple rules when placing anytime touchdown bets. For instance, there are some players I simply don’t leave off my card when their touchdown odds surpass +100, and we’ve got exactly that with Josh Allen today. While New York’s stingy run defense and Buffalo’s offensive injuries could limit the number of goal-to-go situations for Allen, +145 is too long.
While Allen now trails James Cook in red-zone rushing attempts (8 to 13), that isn’t how things worked last season. Allen out-carried Cook inside the 20 (35 to 31), inside the 10 (21 to 18) and inside the five (14 to 4). While it’s possible that offensive coordinator Joe Brady is less willing to use Allen near the goal line, let’s not forget that Cook is banged up.
Cook missed practice on Thursday and Friday before getting in a limited workload on Saturday. If Cook can’t go, it’s Ty Johnson and Ray Davis behind him. Brady has given those two a combined six red-zone carries this season with three inside the five.
Even if Brady doesn’t cook up a play for Allen, the veteran quarterback can certainly improvise on a passing play and find paydirt. Allen is averaging three scrambles per game for 8.2 yards per scramble. If the Bills are without either Cook or Shakir, they’ll have to lean on No. 17 close to the goal line, and we’re getting odds that are simply too good to pass up.
Bills-Jets Anytime Touchdown Bet: Josh Allen +145 at DraftKings
