Aaron Rodgers, welcome to the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills have owned the division the last three seasons, but the Jets made big moves this offseason to grab the attention of sportsbook and bettors all around the world. Let’s identify the best Bills-Jets player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 1’s edition of Monday Night Football.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and Week 1 picks. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Bills-Jets Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bills: -138 | Jets: +118
Bills-2.5: -110 | Jets +2.5: -110
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Bills-Jets Player Prop
The Jets weren’t the only team to make moves in the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills signed former New England Patriots running back Damien Harris to a one-year deal to back up second-year pro James Cook. I’m a firm believer in Cook leading this backfield by a wide margin and having a breakout season. The Bills have lacked an elite running back for over seven years dating back to LeSean McCoy. McCoy is also the last Bills player to rush for 1,000 yards. Now, 1,000 yards is a tall task for Cook after he had 507 yards last season, but he averaged 5.7 yards per carry on only 89 attempts. We haven’t even addressed quarterback Josh Allen, who is a freight train himself. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry, which was second on the team behind now Houston Texans back Devin Singletary.
Let’s get into Harris. The anticipated usage is what I’m backing on come Monday Night. DraftKings and BetMGM have listed Harris’ rush attempts at 5.5 with vig on the over. Do I think he covers that? Honestly no. But I’ll pivot to his rushing yards against a New York Jets defense that allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards at home last year. Now, the Jets find themselves with a real offense and could control the clock and keep Allen and company off the field.
The game script comes into play with this one as well. The Jets, at home with Rodgers and an elite run game, can put up points in a hurry and catch the Bills playing from behind. If we’re fortunate enough to get the Jets to lead throughout this game, I don’t see Harris being a factor much, at least in the run game.
Like last season, FanDuel will be the last one to release this prop compared to their competitors. Head to Caesars to get the best line at -117, while DraftKings is laying -120.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now with our FanDuel promo code, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets and $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket by placing a $5 wager!
Bills-Jets Player Prop Pick: Damien Harris Under 24.5 Rushing Yards -117 at Caesars
Bills-Jets Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Since I’m fading Damien Harris, it makes sense to back Josh Allen in the running game. Allen is a freak when it comes to finding the endzone. Allen ran for a touchdown seven times during the regular season and once in the playoffs last year. His 6-foot-5, 240-pound frame is daunting to secondary’s and too fast for defensive fronts. If the Bills find themselves inside the 10, Allen will have his chances. He led the Bills with 6.1 yards per carry — top 5 in the NFL.
The Bills can talk about how they want to protect Allen all they want but his legs are a huge part of his game. He has the ball in his hands more than any other quarterback in the league with his 35 pass attempts last season and over seven rush attempts per game. His high usage, and sportsbook opening his rushing attempts at 7.5, give me confidence that they’ll utilize him in the RPO.
Bank on Allen to find the endzone out of any Bills rusher and to build on his three rushing touchdowns against the Jets last season. Head to DraftKings to find this line at +185 while FanDuel comes in at +150.
Bills-Jets Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Josh Allen +185 at DraftKings
Today’s Best NFL & Sportsbook Promotions
