The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos in another absolutely thrilling edition of Thursday Night Football. I’m clearly very excited about this one, if you can’t tell. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into Thursday’s Broncos-Chiefs betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 6 bet for Thursday Night Football! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost at FanDuel Sportsbook — new users can even get $200 in bonus bets!
Broncos-Chiefs Pick, Prediction & FanDuel Boost | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via Bet365
Broncos: +450 | Chiefs: -600
Broncos +10.5: -110 | Chiefs -10.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Broncos-Chiefs Pick & Prediction
The Denver Broncos are not a good football team. Their decision to ship off pass rusher Randy Gregory well before the trade deadline signals that they’re aware of this fact. Last week’s embarrassing loss to the New York Jets, in which a team that entered the game averaging 15.5 points per game put up 31, should be the nail in the coffin for any hopes this team had of competing in 2023. Denver’s defense ranks 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. No team can compete with a defense that terrible.
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Unfortunately, the rest of the world knows how awful Denver’s defense is. The Broncos are a 10.5-point underdog for Thursday Night Football, and the Chiefs’ team total sits at a lofty 29.5. Although it’s tempting, let’s not jump at that number. Yes, the Broncos are allowing 36.2 points per game, but opposing offenses have only surpassed that number three times. Further, Kansas City is averaging only 25.6 points per game, and, as we saw against the New York Jets, they care more about winning football games than their either individual or team stats.
Instead of playing Kansas City’s full-game team total, I recommend playing their first-half team total. Head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are excellent at milking the clock after building an early lead, but for them to do that, they’ll have to build the early lead first. Kansas City ranks fifth in points scored per first half (17.6) while Denver ranks 31st in points allowed per first half (17.6). Both of the teams they have faced on the road thus far scored at least three first-half touchdowns, but Kansas City’s first-half team total sits at just 14.5 on FanDuel.
The Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since quarterback Peyton Manning was still at the helm, and their recent losses to Kansas City have featured plenty of early points. The Chiefs are averaging 15.4 points per first half over their last 10 games against the Broncos, dating back to the start of the Patrick Mahomes era, and those games often featured far better defenses. The Chiefs should coast to an early lead in Arrowhead on Thursday Night Football, so take advantage of their relatively low first-half team total for this week’s action.
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A dive into the Chiefs’ first-half total across the market reveals how much the odds at FanDuel stand out. Bet365 lists their first-half total at 16.5 with a price of +100, BetMGM lists it at 15.5 with a price of -110 and DraftKings doesn’t list a first-half team total for the Chiefs. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at 15.5 with a price of -107. So not only are we getting a better price at +100 — which we can boost to +150 for the first $25, mind you — we’re also getting a full-point discount (and two points off from Bet365). Although the difference between 14 and 15 points isn’t a major one — we, in all likelihood, would need three scores for either — the 14.5 will pay out for a five field goal half, and a safety would be enough to make up for a missed extra point.
Broncos-Chiefs NFL Week 6 Pick & Prediction: Kansas City 1H Team Total Over 14.5 +100 at FanDuel
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