Last week, we cashed in on both our player prop and anytime touchdown bets for Thursday Night Football — Antonio Gibson went over 13.5 receiving yards, and Logan Thomas caught a touchdown pass. The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Denver Broncos in this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup, and they’re 10.5-point favorites. I already have action on a total for this one, but let’s dive into the best Broncos-Chiefs player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 6’s Thursday Night Football contest.
Broncos-Chiefs Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via Bet365
Broncos: +450 | Chiefs: -600
Broncos +10.5: -110 | Chiefs -10.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Broncos-Chiefs Player Prop
The Denver Broncos have the NFL’s worst defense. They rank a dreadful 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback. Those are embarrassing numbers, and Thursday’s date with the Kansas City Chiefs will be ugly. The Broncos have also allowed the most rushing yards to running backs (821) and the third-most receiving yards to them (256). Last week, Breece Hall ran for 177 yards on 22 carries and added another 17 on three receptions. In Week 4, Khalil Herbert ran for 103 yards on 18 carries and added 19 yards on four receptions.
Perhaps predictably, we’re backing running back Isiah Pacheco to go over his receiving yardage prop. While the game script isn’t likely to be friendly for the Kansas City passing game, as the Chiefs will likely milk the clock with plenty of runs, that should benefit us by keeping Pacheco on the field as opposed to receiving back Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco has been doing plenty of work as a receiver this year, too — he is averaging 2.6 targets, 2.2 receptions and 19.8 receiving yards per game on 10.8 routes run. He owns a steady route participation rate of 29.1%.
The books — well, DraftKings and Bet365 specifically — haven’t adjusted for Pacheco’s increased role as a receiver. His receiving yardage prop sits at just 11.5 on both books. Other sites have it at 12.5 and 13.5 (PointsBet even lists it at 15.5) with the juice favoring the over by a wider margin than the -110 available at both DraftKings and Bet365. OddsShopper’s tools reveal that this Isiah Pacheco player prop should be priced at -120, meaning it wins 55% of the time, but we’re buying it with implied odds of only 52.4%. You can even boost it to +136 at DraftKings!
Broncos-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Receiving Yards -110 at DraftKings
Broncos-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Are we going to talk about Isiah Pacheco even more? You betcha. While it’s somewhat risky to put all our eggs in the Pacheco basket, we’re getting a decent enough price at Caesars to warrant a wager on this market. Not only have the Broncos surrendered the most rushing touchdowns to running backs (8), but they have also surrendered the most receiving touchdowns (4) to them as well. That’s good for a rate of 2.4 running back touchdowns per game. While the Miami Dolphins game obviously skews that data, the Broncos have failed to keep their opponent’s starting running back from scoring in their last four games.
Pacheco has dominated the red-zone touches for the Chiefs. Although we’ve seen Jerick McKinnon score twice in the red zone and Clyde Edwards-Helaire score once, Pacheco’s two red-zone scores are a product of variance. He has toted the rock 17 times inside the red zone (65.4% share) and five times inside the five-yard line (50% share). He has also earned two red-zone targets (6.9% share), one of which came inside the 10-yard line (6.3% share). McKinnon has the same number of red-zone targets and just one rushing red-zone rushing attempt. Edwards-Helaire has one red-zone rushing attempt and no red-zone targets. So what are the odds for Pacheco to score a touchdown?
Pacheco’s odds of finding paydirt vary from the -165 at DraftKings, which equates to implied odds of 62.3%, to the -121 at Caesars, which equates to only 54.8%. That 7.5% swing in the implied odds is massive, and, obviously, you should head to Caesars to take advantage of it. If you’re new to Caesars, I recommend that you Check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code — you can get your first bet on the house up to $1,000! I recommend splitting a unit between Pacheco scoring a single touchdown at -121 and him scoring multiple at +420. Brian Robinson Jr., De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert all scored multiple touchdowns against Denver in prior weeks.
Broncos-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Isiah Pacheco -121 at Caesars
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