We’ve got two great stories under center in the first NFL playoff game of the year. The Houston Texans made it to the playoffs in their first season with quarterback C.J. Stroud at the helm. The Cleveland Browns got here with a rotating assortment of quarterbacks, but a red-hot Joe Flacco has been their best performer at the position. Let’s dive into the best Browns-Texans player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for C.J. Stroud. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Browns-Texans Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Wild Card
Browns-Texans Odds for Saturday
Odds via BetMGM
Browns: -130 | Texans: +110
Browns -2: -110 | Texans +2: -110
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Browns-Texans Player Prop Pick
David Njoku O/U 54.5 Receiving Yards
With quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm, David Njoku has finally begun to look like the player he was expected to be when the Cleveland Browns selected him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.
Njoku set a career-high in receiving yards this season at 882, 390 of which came in games that Flacco started. He is averaging 78 yards per game with Flacco at the helm with a median performance of 91.
Njoku didn’t do much against the Texans in Week 16, but he didn’t have to. Amari Cooper exploded for 265 yards and two scores. Njoku’s six receptions for 44 yards were enough to help the Browns secure a 14-point win over the C.J. Stroud-less Texans. I don’t expect the Browns to let Cooper roast them like they did back in December, and any extra defensive attention on Cooper should help Njoku.
The Texans have generally fared worse versus opposing tight ends than opposing wide receivers anyway. Houston allowed 160.3 receiving yards per game to wideouts in the regular season, which ranked 12th-most, but 60.2 to tight ends, which ranked fifth-most. Because of Njoku’s high ceiling with Flacco at the helm, I’m backing him to go over 54.5 receiving yards and am laddering him up to 90 (+320 at DraftKings) through 70 (+145 at DraftKings).
Browns-Texans Player Prop Pick: David Njoku Over 54.5 Receiving Yards -125 at DraftKings
Browns-Texans Model Player Prop
C.J. Stroud O/U 11.5 Rushing Yards
With my NFL player prop pick for Saturday’s Browns-Texans game in the books, let’s turn to what OddsShopper Premium wants action on. It sees value on a C.J. Stroud player prop on Caesars due to a big-time odds disparity between that book and the rest of the market.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, every other book offering Stroud at 11.5 rushing yards, including Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -110 or worse. Meanwhile, Caesars is hanging a +106 for it. That’s worse than the true odds of -106, and we’re getting enough +EV on this bet for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $24 on it. Take advantage of the value while you can.
Browns-Texans Player Prop Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 11.5 Rushing Yards +106 at Caesars
Browns-Texans Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I’m doubling down on my David Njoku analysis with our anytime touchdown scorer pick. Njoku’s yards are up significantly under Joe Flacco, and so are his scoring plays. Njoku caught four touchdown passes from Flacco in the regular season, scoring in three of his five starts, including the Week 16 game against Houston.
Njoku leads the Browns in key red-zone volume metrics. He leads the team in targets inside the 20-yard line with 17, good for a 26.6% share, and inside the 10 with 10, good for a 34.5% share. Only three of his red-zone targets have resulted in scores, but the looks have been there.
The Texans’ defense is good in the red zone, but they allow teams to get there with relative ease. Houston ranks 20th in red-zone scoring chances allowed per game (3.2). Their steadier 12th-place ranking in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage allowed (51.9%) makes the unit seem better than it is.
Lastly, the +215 odds at bet365 are just too good to pass up. Njoku is listed at odds of +200 or shorter at literally every other book, including Pinnacle, where he clocks in at just +174. If you can’t access bet365, the +195 at FanDuel isn’t a bad deal, either.
Browns-Texans Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: David Njoku +210 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets!
