The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered brutal divisional losses last week. They now must bounce back on a short week. Let’s dig into Thursday’s Buccaneers-Bills betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 8 bet for Thursday Night Football! Also, don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost at DraftKings Sportsbook — new users can even get $200 in bonus bets!
Buccaneers-Bills Pick, Prediction & DraftKings Boost | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Buccaneers: +340 | Bills: -440
Buccaneers +8.5: -110 | Bills -8.5: -110
Over 43: -112 | Under 43: -108
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Buccaneers-Bills Pick & Prediction
The is a profoundly weird spot for the Buffalo Bills. They’re coming off three disappointing games in a row, largely due to a mounting list of injuries, after three dominant blowout wins in a row. The Buffalo team that blew out Miami had some additional pieces like DaQuan Jones, Damien Harris, Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, but this squad isn’t too far off from that. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are still at the safety spots, and they’re still elite. The offense hasn’t lost any key pieces and still leads the NFL in expected points added (EPA) between Weeks 4 and 7.
I’m not buying into the “Bills are dead” narrative. We saw this team blow out the Miami Dolphins, the same Miami Dolphins that scored 70 on the Denver Broncos right beforehand, by 28. Quarterback Josh Allen feasted against a bad secondary that now ranks 18th in EPA allowed per dropback; he’ll get to face a unit that ranks 20th on Thursday, and they’re coming off short rest. The Tampa Bay defense is coughing up the sixth-most passing yards per game (246.7) and ninth-most yards per pass attempt (6.8).
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Although the Bills are a relatively slow-paced team, they’re taking on a Tampa Bay offense that ranks 14th in second per play (28.3) and 16h in passing play percentage (58.2%). Their rushing offense has never gotten going as it ranks 30th in EPA per rush attempt. Plenty of blame falls on the offensive line, which ranks 32nd in run-block win rate (63%). Although Baker Mayfield is questionable with a knee injury, I expect him to play because he practiced in full on Wednesday, so expect a heavy dose of him come Thursday night.
Buffalo’s defense is well-equipped to stop Mayfield. The journeyman quarterback will take on a unit that ranks ninth in EPA allowed per dropback and second in pass-rush win rate (60%). Although some key pieces in the trenches are hurt, edge rushers Leonard Floyd and Von Miller aren’t, and they’ll tee off against Mayfield. Mayfield has been relatively solid under pressure throughout his career, but his knee injury could limit his mobility somewhat.
To wrap things up: I have a lot of faith in Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott. The Bills are 15-10-3 ATS in non-conference games under his leadership. They are also 19-15-3 ATS after a loss and 22-17-3 ATS as a home favorite. Silly mistakes have held them back the last three weeks, but with a simplified Thursday playbook, I expect the Bills not to beat themselves. Trust them to cover the 8.5, which you can boost up to odds of +136 at DraftKings.
Buccaneers-Bills Pick & Prediction: Buffalo -8.5 -110 at DraftKings
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