Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills are coming off disappointing losses, but they’ll get a chance to right the ship against each other on Thursday night. The Buccaneers have listed both Chris Godwin and Baker Mayfield as questionable, but all signs point to the two of them suiting up despite their injuries. The same can’t be said of Dawson Knox, who the Bills placed on injured reserve this week. Let’s dive into the best Buccaneers-Bills player prop and anytime touchdown scorer bet for Thursday Night Football. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Buccaneers-Bills Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Buccaneers: +325 | Bills: -425
Buccaneers +8.5: -110 | Bills -8.5: -110
Over 43: -110 | Under 43: -110
Time: Thursday, Oct. 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Buccaneers-Bills Player Prop
Rachaad White Prop O/U 21.5 Receiving Yards
The Buffalo Bills own an elite pass rush. As a team, they rank second in pass-rush win rate (60%). Key contributors include edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who ranks eighth individually (25%), and defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who ranks 10th (15%). Oliver is questionable with a toe injury but logged limited reps in practice. Because Buffalo can rush the quarterback effectively, it’s safe to expect dump-off passes to running backs. Buffalo has coughed up the ninth-most receptions (36) and sixth-most receiving yards (303) to the position.
We’re trusting White, Tampa Bay’s starting running back, to step up as a receiver. The Bills lack depth at inside linebacker with Matt Milano out, which means White has a chance to get some extra yardage out of each catch. White is already an effective receiver and is averaging 3.7 receptions and 27.2 receiving yards per game. He has beaten this number in four of his six appearances. Notably, White is yet to face a defense ranked worse than Buffalo’s in terms of yards allowed per game to running backs. You’ll find White priced at -120 to go over this number at BetMGM and DraftKings, but he clocks in at -147 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Take advantage of that odds disparity. If you haven’t signed up at BetMGM, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500!
Buccaneers-Bills Player Prop Pick: Rachaad White Over 21.5 Receiving Yards -120 at BetMGM
Buccaneers-Bills Model Player Prop
Rachaad White First Touchdown Scorer Prop
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on White, too, but instead of his receiving yards, it’s identifying his first touchdown odds as a high-value market at the moment. But how does it work?
OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper’s Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $99.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “SLAMDUNK50” to take 50% off!
Market-based modeling aside, this wager also jumps out as a sharp bet because of his red-zone workload. It’ll be tough for him to find paydirt against Buffalo, but he leads the team in red-zone carries with 14 (73.7% share) and inside the five-yard line with two (66.7%). He has also recorded three red-zone targets (11.5%).
Buccaneers-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sometimes the most logical pick is the best one. The Buffalo Bills just lost starting tight end Dawson Knox, who ranks second on the team in red-zone targets with six (18.8%), to an injury. Knox will be replaced by rookie Dalton Kincaid, who ranks fourth in red-zone targets with three (9.4%). But instead of trusting the rookie to score his first-ever touchdown, why not just trust wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who leads Buffalo in red-zone targets with 10 (31.3%), to help the Bills through Knox’s absence?
Diggs has scored six times this season, recording a touchdown in four of his seven appearances. He turned four of his 10 red-zone targets into scores and scored on passes caught outside the red zone twice. Diggs scored 11 regular-season touchdowns last year, finding paydirt at least once in eight of his 16 appearances. The Buccaneers may have coughed up only one receiving touchdown per game to this point, but we’ve seen two massive explosive scores — bombs to Olamide Zaccheaus and Jameson Williams — that suggest the right quarterback and receiver combination could put points on the board. Buffalo has some good longshot options like Deonte Harty (+700) who could replicate their success, but I’m just going to trust Diggs at odds of +109 via Caesars. If you’re yet to register at Caesars, check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your first bet on the house up to $1,000.
Buccaneers-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Stefon Diggs +109 at Caesars
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 7 now!
