The NFL rolls into Week 5 — the first week with byes assigned — with a solid divisional Thursday Night Football matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Atlanta Falcons as both teams look to keep pace with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. While you’re here, make sure to check out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting to improve your process. Now, let’s dive into our Buccaneers-Falcons player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Thursday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Drake London.
Buccaneers-Falcons Player Prop Pick for Sterling Shepard
We were 29-25 (+8.9U) on our NFL bets via The Profit Isaiah heading into last Sunday, but then the wheels fell off. After a poor run, we’re down to 33-35 (+4.3U), which is still profitably (to the tune of a 7.1% ROI), but I know we can do better. I’ve been pretty good with primetime games so far, and I’m looking to pick some more winners tonight.
You may not realize it, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very banged up on this short week, especially at receiver. Sure, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are healthy, but both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer are out. McMillan was even playing on 80% of the snaps before missing Week 4.
The injuries to McMillan and Palmer has led to a surprising surge in usage for Sterling Shepard. The veteran receiver played on 64% of Tampa Bay’s snaps last week and racked up five targets from Baker Mayfield, of which he caught three for 51 yards. Mayfield recruited Shepard to Tampa this offseason.
Those unfamiliar with the now-31-year-old Shepard should look back to his time on the New York Giants, where he was once a top-tier slot receiver until his career was derailed by injury. With the Buccaneers struggling on the ground and throwing 60.5% of the time, I expect some chances for Shepard.
Shepard’s receiving yardage prop is sitting at 19.5 on most major sportsbooks, less than half what he recorded last week. That’s too low. Not only has he proven to us that he is still capable of producing yardage, but he also has chemistry with Mayfield, which is why the veteran quarterback wanted him in the first place. Lock in Shepard’s over for -110 at FanDuel — and consider laddering it up to 40+ yards for +320.
Buccaneers-Falcons Player Prop Pick: Sterling Shepard Over 19.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Buccaneers-Falcons Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
With tight end Kyle Pitts basically disappearing (including from Atlanta’s game plan — he played a season-low 67.9% of the snaps and participated in routes a season-low 52.8% of the time — the red zone clearly belongs to wide receiver Drake London.
Through Week 4, Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball inside the 20-yard line 13 times. Of those 13 throws, six went to London. The young wideout has caught five of those passes, but only two went for scores. Still, the red-zone volume is very encouraging.
London’s main competition near paydirt is running back Bijan Robinson and the ground game, but the Falcons are lining up against a Buccaneers secondary that’s missing star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. I expect some defensive miscues in the secondary as a result — and for Atlanta’s offense to exploit them.
You’ll find London’s anytime touchdown scorer odds set to between +135 and +155 at almost every major sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp offshore, lists London at +160. Yet BetMGM has this bet priced at +175! Using pricing disparities like this one makes for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy, so don’t leave this one off your card.
Buccaneers-Falcons Anytime Touchdown Bet: Drake London +175 at BetMGM
