The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings will square off in their season opener. The Vikings have home-field advantage for this one, and they’ll look to build on their solid NFC North-winning campaign last year. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will have to adjust to life without Tom Brady. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Buccaneers-Vikings betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 1 bet!
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Buccaneers-Vikings Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 1
Buccaneers-Vikings Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Buccaneers: +210 | Vikings: -255
Buccaneers +6: -110 | Vikings -6: -110
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Buccaneers-Vikings Pick & Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the misfortune of visiting the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, meaning their home faithful will have to wait to truly welcome Baker Mayfield to Tampa Bay. The Vikings aren’t great, but they went on a tear last season, winning the NFC North handily but getting sent home from the playoffs early by Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Both teams lost some key pieces in the offseason, but the Buccaneers are categorically worse for wear than the Vikings — losing star quarterback Tom Brady is a huge hit, and star center Ryan Jensen, who was supposed to be available for Week 1, is still on injured reserve. The defense remained mostly intact but lost some pieces like linemen Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Akiem Hicks, while the secondary lost safety Keanu Neal.
The Buccaneers will turn to Mayfield under center, which, if Tampa Bay’s offensive line plays like it did last year, could prove disastrous. Brady has elite processing speed and spent just 2.2 seconds in the pocket per play last year, but Mayfield took 2.5 seconds with the Panthers and 2.6 seconds with the Rams. Tampa Bay’s offensive line recorded a pass-block win rate of just 55%, which ranks 25th, worse than what both the Panthers (62%) and Rams (61%) recorded. Mayfield’s slower processing speed will test Tampa Bay’s offensive line further, and right tackle Luke Goedeke, who recorded a 43.7 PFF grade last year, and rookie right guard Cody Mauch could get exposed early, limiting Tampa Bay’s ability to get the ball downfield. Mauch is questionable with a back injury that held him out on Thursday and Friday, leaving Tampa in an even worse spot in the trenches.
I didn’t love what the Vikings did in the offseason, but they’re still a much better team than the Buccaneers, and their offense is still scary. Losing defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson to Cleveland will hurt more than some realize, but at least Khyiris Tonga looked steady last year. Linebacker Eric Kendricks is gone, thrusting Brian Asamoah II into a larger role. Incoming are defensive ends Marcus Davenport and Dean Lowry, both of whom posted solid numbers last season. They should help shore up the pass rush enough to pressure Mayfield in his debut — although it’s worth noting that Davenport is questionable after picking up an ankle issue late in the week.
Minnesota’s offseason could’ve gone better on offense, too, but they’re still the better team on that side of the ball. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is still in town, and he’ll get to work with some exciting playmakers in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and this year’s draft pick, Jordan Addison. Losing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook will hurt somewhat, but Addison and a progressing K.J. Osborn should make up the difference at receiver. At running back, Cook was regressing, so the swap to Alexander Mattison might not be that big of a deal. And while Cousins ranked only 20th in adjusted EPA per dropback (0.08) last year, which isn’t great, he fared far better than 37th-ranked Mayfield (-0.11).
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I think the spread for this game is efficient: Minnesota deserves to be a touchdown favorite. However, we can eke out some value on the moneyline as part of a teaser. We paired Minnesota at -245 (71%) to win with Seattle in the early week column, which remains a sharp bet. Mayfield will struggle behind a thin, inexperienced group of blockers, and the Vikings should roll through the Buccaneers for an easy home win. They could take it by more than a touchdown, but pair this NFL Week 1 moneyline pick with the Seattle moneyline pick to build a sharp teaser bet.
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Buccaneers-Vikings NFL Week 1 Pick: Minnesota Moneyline -245 at FanDuel (Teaser Pick)
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