Two giant matchups in the Conference Championship Round starts with a quarterback showcase in Baltimore, and ends with Detroit in San Francisco. While the Ravens seem to be gaining traction as the favorite, the line went from 3 to 4.5, the late game hasn’t seen much more than a quick move from 7 to 7.5, only to drop back down. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson highlight the first matchup but the playoffs always allow for someone else to steal the show. The 49ers and Lions are each capable of dropping 30 on any opponent, so we expect scoring to be high all around! Here are the best first touchdown plays for the Conference Championships!
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Conference Championship First Touchdown Picks
Kansas City Chiefs First Touchdown Pick
For the first time in his career, Lamar Jackson led his team to points in the first quarter of a playoff game. It took monster winds combined with the fresh faced Houston Texans for Jackson to turn that tide. There’s nothing on paper against this Chiefs defense that would indicate it can continue, at least not on the first drive. In fact, the Ravens might be playing catch up after you read how good Mahomes has been in this same spot. The Ravens won’t be able to contain the Chiefs on their opener, so any bet on Baltimore requires them to have the ball first and reverse a career-long trend for Jackson.
While it’s taken multiple games for Jackson to hit first quarter points, Mahomes has led his team to points in the opening drive in seven straight playoff games. Baltimore’s defense is amazing, but Mahomes seems to find ways to score early points. Building off that, the better value is going to be anyone not named Travis Kelce. We are aware his mega pop star girlfriend has ramped up game day performances – or possible a shirtless Jason Kelce led to a two-touchdown outburst – but the better play here is on Rashee Rice.
The Ravens do a great job stopping number one receivers but the Chiefs don’t have much else in that category outside of Rice and Kelce. There’s going to be a little overcompensation on Kelce at first, especially in the red zone, opening for solo matchups against Rice. While that is coming against a solid cornerback no matter the side, Rice won’t be neglected by Mahomes or the offense.
Chiefs First Touchdown Picks: Rashee Rice +1000 at BetMGM for 0.25 Units
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San Francisco 49ers First Touchdown Pick
The home team laying seven points is going to have Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffery both healthy and available. Healthy enough at least to play. The odds for both Samuel and McCaffery are always lower, heavy chalk and popular names. The Lions have struggled against typical number one receivers, which Brandon Aiyuk still fits – even with Samuel back. Detroit is leaking on down field coverage where the 49ers can strike with Aiyuk over Samuel or even George Kittle. The latter being the other strong option here to score first.
We roll with Aiyuk because his routes and game script will mirror more of a typical number 1 in the offense, where Detroit has struggled to contain. The Niners defense is loaded right now against Jared Goff and the Lions, so there should be little concern if SF needs to make a stop first. Kyle Shannahan has covered seven straight games coming off a win-no-cover and this line is sitting at a touchdown. Recent history alone would suggest the Niners strike first, and often. We just need Aiyuk to be the first one to open the floodgates.
Chiefs First Touchdown Picks: Brandon Aiyuk +900 at FanDuel for 0.25 Units
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