The NFL player prop market always has a ton of value each week — you just have to know where to look. Fortunately, both our staff and OddsShopper’s model (which has helped me print 13.7 units of profit on the NBA) are here to help. Let’s dive into this Chargers-Patriots player prop bet for Bailey Zappe in Week 13 — and yes, we’re buying an over.
Chargers-Patriots Player Prop Bet for NFL Week 13
Chargers-Patriots Information
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Who: Bailey Zappe at FanDuel
Chargers-Patriots Player Prop Pick: Bailey Zappe
The New England Patriots will turn to backup quarterback Bailey Zappe against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend, and while I’m usually out on betting overs for players who could get benched, it sounds like the Patriots will leave Mac Jones inactive and have Malik Cunningham as the backup. That means even if Zappe struggles early, the Patriots are unlikely to pivot away from him as a passer.
Zappe has made most of his appearances in relief of Jones, but in a two-start sample last year, he averaged 248.5 passing yards per game with totals of 188 yards against Detroit and 309 yards against Cleveland. Zappe is averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt for his career. That’s down to 4.1 yards per pass attempt this year, which is atrocious, but I’m interested in seeing what he can do as the designated starter.
Hungry for more? Check out the rest of our NFL player props for Week 13! ➚➚
The matchup is the main reason we’re backing Zappe. The Chargers’ passing defense has been terrible all season. They have coughed up the most passing yards to quarterbacks (3,340), good for 303.6 per game and 7.9 per attempt. With the Patriots ranked 10th in passing play percentage this year (59.7%) and listed as a 5.5-point underdog, ladder Zappe up to 200-plus passing yards.
I got action on the over when it was trading at 177.5, but we’re now up to 181.5 at FanDuel while other books, including Pinnacle, have it at 188.5. If you want real-time access to my expert picks so that you can enjoy some closing line value (CLV) like this, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium — you can even take 20% off by using code “ISIROIS” at checkout.
Chargers-Patriots Player Prop Pick: Bailey Zappe Over 177.5 Passing Yards -114 at FanDuel
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