It should be mandatory for the Chiefs and Bills to meet in the postseason every year. With two of the top quarterbacks in football going head to head, Patick Mahomes and Josh Allen seem to always put on a show against one another. Let’s dive into the best Chiefs-Bills player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Patrick Mahomes. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Chiefs-Bills Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Divisional
Chiefs-Bills Odds for Sunday
Odds via FanDuel
Chiefs: +124 | Bills: -146
Chiefs +2.5: -+100 | Bills -2.5: -122
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Jan. 21 at 6:31 p.m. ET
Chiefs-Bills Player Prop Pick
Dalton Kincaid O/U 38.5 Receiving Yards
The NFL is in good hands with how many young and promising tight ends there are around the league. The first game of the day features Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions, who set NFL records in his first year. But let’s focus in on Chiefs-Bills, where Dalton Kincaid headlines our top player prop bet.
Dalton Kincaid hasn’t let the presence of fellow tight end Dawson Knox stop him from outperforming the veteran. Kincaid has put together games of 87, 84, and 59 yards in the last three games with both tight ends active. The second to last game came in Week 18 for the AFC East title against the Miami Dolphins. That was followed last week in the AFC Wild Card round, where Kincaid surpassed his receiving yard prop and found the endzone on a 29-yard touchdown catch. The rookie has shown up in the biggest games of the season, and it only gets bigger on Sunday, when a trip to the AFC Championship in Baltimore is on the line.
It’s no secret who quarterback Josh Allen prefers in passing down situations. Kincaid has registered at least six targets in three straight weeks, while Knox has seen just five total balls thrown his way during that span. The snap count has also favored Kincaid as of late. Kincaid has played over 50% of the snaps in three straight weeks and all but two this season. The same can’t be said for Knox.
Let’s turn our attention to the Kansas City defense. This is the best defensive group that the Kansas City Chiefs have had in the Patrick Mahomes era. They’re allowing the second-fewest points per game and the fourth-fewest yards through the air. Luckily for us, the Bills offense is as lethal as they come. With the emergence of James Cook out of the backfield, teams have to respect the run. That doesn’t include Allen, who loves to take off running in playoff games. This opens up the middle of the field for Kincaid, who has surpassed this line in six of nine home games this season. In the wide receiver room for Buffalo, Gabe Davis will be out again, while Stefon Diggs will get the L’Jarius Sneed treatment – no better time for Kincaid to step up.
Chiefs-Bills Player Prop Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 38.5 Receiving Yards -115 at BetMGM
Chiefs-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Who else but Patrick Mahomes? FanDuel is hanging +600 odds for Mahomes to find the endzone on Sunday Night. The next closest major book is DraftKings at +475. Mahomes took off just two times last week against the Miami Dolphins in frigid temperatures, but they were game changing. That included a 28-yard run that almost ended in a rushing touchdown. But Mahomes paid the price for it. His helmet shattered to the point where he had to wear a new one.
We have yet to see Mahomes find the endzone this season – that is not a typo. Mahomes has not rushed in a touchdown this season. Much of that has to do with running back Isiah Pacheco scoring six touchdowns and the Chiefs struggles on offense. This has been a challenging year for Mahomes and Andy Reid, but they find themselves just one game away from an appearance in the AFC Championship. The only difference is the Chiefs don’t have the luxury of playing in Arrowhead Stadium. They’ll have to go through Buffalo, in Buffalo, behind one of the most passionate fan bases in sports.
During last season’s postseason run that ended with Mahomes hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, he failed to find the endzone. Matter of fact, the last time Mahomes ran a touchdown in during the playoffs was against the Bills in the iconic Overtime win where the Bills didn’t get a chance to score. Will history repeat itself? I sure hope so.
Chiefs-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Patrick Mahomes +600 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets!
