We’ve seen plenty of NFL games from the United Kingdom, but now we’ll get a treat from Germany on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs, who left later in the week, and the Miami Dolphins, who left earlier, will do battle from Frankfurt Stadium early on Sunday morning. Let’s dive into the best Chiefs-Dolphins player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday’s NFL action in Germany. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Chiefs-Dolphins Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Germany
Chiefs-Dolphins Odds
Odds via bet365
Chiefs: -125 | Dolphins: +105
Chiefs -2: -110 | Dolphins +2: -110
Over 50: -110 | Under 50: -110
Time: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 9:30 p.m. ET
Chiefs-Dolphins Player Prop Pick
Jeff Wilson Jr. Prop O/U 16.5 Rushing Yards
Yeah, Jeff Wilson Jr. has only 23 rushing yards to his name this year. So what? He has been slowly getting reintegrated into the Miami offense. All 23 of those yards came last week in his second appearance, and it wasn’t like the Dolphins were just giving him garbage-time work — Wilson had tallied 19 rushing yards before the end of the first quarter, and he needed just three touches to do so. He now draws a Kansas City defensive front that hasn’t fared all that well against the run this season. The Chiefs are coughing up 87.2 rushing yards per game to running backs.
The Chiefs have plenty of issues to worry about in the trenches. Kansas City’s defense ranks a pathetic 31st in run-stop win rate (27%) and 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4). Their high-powered offense has often forced opposing offenses into pass-heavy game scripts, but with the Chiefs listed as just a 1.5-point favorite for Sunday’s game, the books aren’t expecting Mahomes and company to just blow the doors off the Dolphins. Wilson should get enough looks on the ground to cash the over, especially because he plays for the 17th-ranked offense in rushing play percentage (41.7%). He tallied at least 17 rushing yards in eight of his nine games with the Dolphins last season. If you’re new to BetMGM, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500.
Chiefs-Dolphins Player Prop Pick: Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 16.5 Rushing Yards -120 at BetMGM
Chiefs-Dolphins Model Player Prop
Travis Kelce O/U 7.5 Receptions
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. The model has faith in superstar tight end Travis Kelce in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game. Kelce is averaging 7.7 receptions and 9.7 targets per game this year, so the averages point to an edge on the over. However, his median is a less impressive seven.
The Dolphins have allowed plenty of receptions to tight ends this year. They have coughed up 48 total catches to the position, fourth-most in the NFL, for 5.8 per game. Last week, the New England Patriots had three tight ends — Pharaoh Brown, Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry — combine for a total of seven receptions.
So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
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Chiefs-Dolphins Player Prop: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions +110 at FanDuel
Chiefs-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Sometimes the best bets are the easiest. Travis Kelce has scored only four times this season, but he leads the team in both targets inside the 20-yard line (11) and targets inside the 10-yard line (6), good for a share of 25% from both distances. Last year, he didn’t just lead the Chiefs from both distances — he led the NFL, too! Kelce racked up a monstrous 30 targets inside the 20-yard line and converted 10 of them into touchdowns. Although his red-zone efficiency is down this year, he should turn things around soon, and this soft Dolphins defense is a great target.
The Dolphins have coughed up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to all positions this year (12), good for 0.7 per game. They have also coughed up the eighth-most total receiving touchdowns to tight ends (3). Kelce hasn’t lined up against the Dolphins since the 2020 season, but he caught a touchdown pass in that contest. Kelce also caught a touchdown pass in Kansas City’s last game in Europe, which came against the Detroit Lions back in 2016. Kelce’s touchdown odds of -120 (54.5%) at DraftKings just feel a little short, especially since Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this one at -128.
Chiefs-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Travis Kelce -120 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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