The 2-0 Kansas City Chiefs will look to stay undefeated against the plucky 1-1 Atlanta Falcons. Last week saw Atlanta pull off an improbable comeback in primetime — can they do something similar again? Like we are with every primetime game, we’re here to give you the NFL betting advice you need. Check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting while you’re here! Without further ado, let’s dive into our Chiefs-Falcons player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Sunday Night Football, including a model pick for Kirk Cousins.
Chiefs-Falcons Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | SNF
Chiefs-Falcons Model Player Prop Pick for Kirk Cousins
Do you have an NFL player prop betting strategy? I do. It’s necessary for long-term success. Without one, you won’t know whether the bets you placed would’ve been profitable more often than not. If you’re tired of variance and losing, check out Portfolio EV. We’re sitting at 272-227 (5.4% ROI) on all NFL bets with an OS Rating of 2 or better.
All the best sports betting strategies focus on building a diversified portfolio of bets that are expected to be profitable over a large sample, and, with only a few clicks of our mass entry tool, you can do just that thanks to Portfolio EV! Let’s spotlight something that’s trading at the top of our tools for tonight’s Chiefs-Falcons game.
Our tools trust Kirk Cousins tonight as a passer. Portfolio EV, our market-based sports betting model, reveals that Fanatics is hanging an off-market number for Cousins’ passing yards.
Most books have Cousins’ passing yardage prop set to 232.5, but you can find the over 225.5 for only -120 at Fanatics!
That pricing disparity is significant. Our tools estimate a breakeven price by using the market consensus weighted for book sharpness, and the math says this bet should cost -123.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with +EV instead of a series of “locks” can help you unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
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Chiefs-Falcons Player Prop Model Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 225.5 Passing Yards -120 at Fanatics
Chiefs-Falcons Player Prop Pick for Kyle Pitts
After Thursday Night Football, we’re sitting at a very tidy 18-14 (+5.7U) on all NFL bets posted to my Tails by OddsShopper page. I’m looking to stay hot this weekend, and I have 1.5U of exposure to Kyle Pitts props this evening.
While Pitts has never quite lived up to the hype, the Kansas City Chiefs have sucked against athletic tight ends through two games. Isaiah Likely popped for nine receptions and 111 yards in Week 1. Mike Gesicki popped for seven receptions and 91 yards in Week 2.
Pitts has a similarly elite athletic profile. He has a 99th percentile speed score among tight ends along with 78th percentile burst and an 85th percentile catch radius. And while he has disappointed fantasy managers thus far, he is still only 23 years old.
The counting stats may not be there for Pitts so far this season, but the peripherals are. He has played on 87.7% of Atlanta’s snaps and has run a route on 87.3% of passing plays.
I’ve got Pitts to go over 39.5 receiving yards tonight. I’m also laddering it through 60 (+225 at ESPNBET) up to 100 (+1000 at FanDuel). Let’s ride!
Chiefs-Falcons Player Prop Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -105 at ESPNBET
Chiefs-Falcons Anytime Touchdown Bet for Sunday Night Football
With Isiah Pacheco on the shelf, the Kansas City Chiefs will roll with Carson Steele and Samaje Perine at running back for Week 3. Steele, a great story from the preseason, has the frame and strength needed to score close to the goal line. That makes him our anytime touchdown scorer pick.
Despite his Week 2 fumble, Andy Reid seems to have faith in Steele. The rookie running back already has two carries inside the five-yard line, which he has turned into three yards but zero scores. That changes tonight.
Steele’s anytime touchdown scorer odds range from +105 at Caesars to +135 at ESPN BET. Although that may seem short for a guy who hasn’t scored a touchdown before, he’s running behind three of the NFL’s best interior offensive linemen, and he takes on a Falcons defensive front that ranks 28th in win run-stop rate.
Jump on this bet by taking the off-market +135. Pricing disparities like this one make for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Chiefs-Falcons Anytime Touchdown Bet: Carson Steele +135 at ESPN BET
