The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. I have absolutely no faith in Wilson after what we’ve seen from him over the last two seasons. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Chiefs-Jets betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet!
Chiefs-Jets Pick & Betting Prediction | Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Chiefs: -405 | Jets: +320
Chiefs -8.5: -110 | Jets +8.5: -110
Over 41.5: -105 | Under 41.5: -115
Chiefs-Jets Pick & Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the New York Jets on Sunday in what should devolve into another beatdown of Zach Wilson and company. It’s become abundantly clear that Wilson is not an NFL quarterback — since 2021, he ranks a distant 45th of 45 signal-callers to have played at least 250 snaps in Ben Baldwin’s expected points added (EPA)/CPOE composite metric. He is the only one with a negative score. Head coach Robert Saleh risks losing the locker room if he keeps trusting Wilson under center.
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Say what you will about Zach Wilson, but at least he—oh, wait, nevermind. pic.twitter.com/qokpZn5OhB
— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) September 26, 2023
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football could be the last time we see Wilson as New York’s starter. The Jets signed veteran quarterback Trevor Siemian, and they have Tim Boyle currently working as Wilson’s backup. A blowout loss to the Chiefs would be the perfect opportunity for Saleh to guiltlessly re-bench the former second-overall pick and end the Wilson era in New York. Wilson is sure to struggle against a Kansas City defensive front that has looked much better since the return of Chris Jones and is pressuring quarterbacks on 27% of their dropbacks.
The Jets are 9.5-point home underdogs to the Chiefs this week. Although New York’s defense ranks a solid fourth in EPA allowed per rush, the unit also ranks 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, which is a virtual death sentence against Patrick Mahomes. A proximate cause of that decline is the worsening pass rush, which ranked third in pressure percentage (25.4%) last year but is down to 20th (19.2%) this year. Mahomes should get plenty of points on the board, easily outscoring a Jets offense that ranks 28th in EPA per rush and 32nd in EPA per dropback.
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I recommended buying a same-game parlay of Kansas City -6.5/New York’s team total under 21.5 in the early week column. The odds on that then were -130, but alternate lines for New York’s team total are now down, so you can’t buy that wager at the moment. Instead of waiting for them to potentially re-open, consider just buying the full-game under at 41.5 or the Jets team total under 16.5. Zach Wilson is not an NFL quarterback, and his games do not deserve totals in the 40s. He’ll be a sharp fade until his inevitable benching.
Chiefs-Jets NFL Week 4 Pick: New York Under 16.5 -120 at FanDuel
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