The Green Bay Packers will look to keep their slim postseason hopes alive in Week 13’s edition of Sunday Night Football. They’ll have to take on a tough Kansas City Chiefs squad that is one of several AFC playoff contenders in contention for a bye week. Let’s dive into the best Chiefs-Packers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday Night Football, including a Patrick Mahomes pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Chiefs-Packers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Chiefs: -230 | Packers: +190
Chiefs -5: -110 | Packers +5: -110
Over 43: -110 | Under 43: -110
Time: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Chiefs-Packers Player Prop Pick
Patrick Mahomes Prop O/U 18.5 Rushing Yards
The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Green Bay Packers in this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football. The Packers are coming off a stunning upset win over the Detroit Lions last weekend in which they pressured quarterback Jared Goff 22.6% of the time, forcing him to scramble once for a gain of 11 yards. Goff ended the game with nine rushing yards, good for his second-best performance of the year. With Patrick Mahomes in town, I’m targeting quarterback rushing yards all day in this spot. Mahomes is averaging 27.7 rushing yards per game.
You’ll find Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop is sitting at 18.5, which is below both his average (27.7) and Green Bay’s average rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (24.5). Kansas City’s offensive line leads the NFL in pass-block win rate, but the team’s questionable wide receivers force Mahomes to scramble for short gains simply because none of them get open. Green Bay may not pressure Mahomes as much as they pressured Goff last week, but Mahomes should still wind up scrambling for at least 20 yards, which he has done in nine of his 11 starts this year.
Chiefs-Packers Player Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards -110 at bet365
Chiefs-Packers Model Player Prop
Jordan Love O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With my pick out of the way, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Jordan Love on the passing touchdown markets because of a big odds disparity between Caesars Sportsbook and the rest of the market. You’ll find it priced up at +178 (35.9%) on Caesars but at +162 (38.2%) on Pinnacle and +160 (38.5%) on DraftKings. That’s more than enough value to justify backing the over.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
In this case, the model wants action on Edwards because the true odds are +154 (39.7%), which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the +178 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $38. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off!
Chiefs-Packers Player Prop: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +178 at Caesars
Chiefs-Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Death, taxes and Patrick Mahomes trusting Travis Kelce in the red zone. Kelce led the NFL in targets inside the 20-yard line last year (30) and inside the 10 (19). He is off to a much slower start this year with just 13 targets inside the 20 and seven inside the 10, but importantly, he still leads the Chiefs in both metrics. His 23.2% target share inside the 20 is just slightly higher than that of Rashee Rice (21.4%), but Kelce is the clear-cut lead option inside the 10, as his 25.9% target share from there is far higher than Rice’s (18.5%).
The Chiefs should get plenty of scoring opportunities against the Green Bay defense. The Packers are tied for 24th in red-zone scoring attempts allowed per game (3.4), and the Chiefs rank seventh in red-zone scoring attempts generated per game (3.7). Playing this one in hostile territory hurts, but it shouldn’t keep Kelce out of the end zone. You can buy Kelce at odds of just +100 (50%) to score via bet365. New users are bet365 can get $150 in bets after betting $5 — or up to $1,000 in bonus bets back if their first wager loses!
Chiefs-Packers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Travis Kelce +100 at bet365
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 13 now!
