The AFC Championship Game has almost arrived. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium with a bid to the Super Bowl on the line. Will the Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift media storm continue for another two weeks, or will Lamar Jackson cut us some slack? Let’s dive into the best Chiefs-Ravens player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday, including a pick for Patrick Mahomes. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Chiefs-Ravens Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | 2024 AFC Championship Game
Chiefs-Ravens Odds for Sunday
Odds via BetMGM
Chiefs: +170 | Ravens: -210
Chiefs +3.5: -105 | Ravens -3.5: -115
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 3:10 p.m. ET
Chiefs-Ravens Player Prop Pick
Gus Edwards O/U 43.5 Rushing Yards
The Baltimore Ravens should try to play keep-away on Sunday as they look to topple Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. I expect plenty of runs for trusted running back Gus Edwards, who is averaging 47.2 rushing yards per game this year.
Edwards only faces competition for looks from Lamar Jackson and Justice Hill. Both outran him in the Divisional Round, picking up more rushing attempts and more carries. Now Edwards looks like a forgotten man on the prop markets.
Edwards’ rushing yardage prop is trading at 43.5, below his aforementioned season average, despite an above-average matchup. Kansas City may have ranked a solid 15th in rushing yards allowed per game to running backs this season (86.9), but that often came down to the game script. The Chiefs ranked 32nd in run-stop win rate (27%) and 28th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rushing play. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s offensive line ranked fifth in run-block win rate (72%).
No stat illuminates how significantly the Chiefs are likely to struggle against Edwards more than their struggles versus runs out of the shotgun. Kansas City allowed 5.1 yards per carry to runs out of the shotgun and ranked dead last in stuff rate when facing runs out of the formation. Meanwhile, Baltimore attempted the second-most runs out of the shotgun this year (343), and Edwards, while often seen as a power back, took 59.1% of his carries out of the shotgun.
I’m backing Edwards to surpass the 43.5-rushing yard mark for -120 at DraftKings, which you can boost to +108 for the first $25, and am laddering him up to 60 (+195 at DraftKings). The forecast calls for rain and otherwise sloppy conditions, so don’t be surprised if Edwards gets more than his usual number of carries on Sunday afternoon.
Chiefs-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Gus Edwards Over 43.5 Rushing Yards -120 at DraftKings
Chiefs-Ravens Model Player Prop
Patrick Mahomes O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Now that you’ve read about my top Chiefs-Ravens player prop pick, let’s talk about what OddsShopper’s Premium tools think is a good bet. Our model works for the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB — as well as other sports — so no matter what time of year it is, you’re getting sharp bets to build your bankroll.
The model wants action on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It does not want an over. Instead, it wants action on him to stay under 1.5 passing touchdowns. While this may seem unthinkable, Mahomes has stayed under this number once already in this year’s playoffs and did so in seven of his 16 regular-season games.
So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, the model is identifying Mahomes as a sharp fade because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 1.5 touchdowns for +100, while plenty of other public books are offering an even shorter price. Those odds — along with the odds at every other major book — lead it to believe a fair price for the under 1.5 to be +107, which is steeper than the +114 you’ll find at DraftKings.
Chiefs-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +114 at DraftKings
Chiefs-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
He’s ba-ack! Mark Andrews will make his return to the field for the Ravens this weekend, and that’s a huge boost to their offense. Although Isaiah Likely filled in admirably, there is no replacing Andrews in Baltimore’s red-zone scheme.
Despite having played in just 10 regular-season games, Andrews led the Ravens in targets inside the 20-yard line (14) and inside the 10-yard line (7), good for target shares of 21.9% and 22.6%, respectively.
Andrews found the end zone six times this year. While he scored in only four of 10 games (he recorded a pair of two-touchdown games), he remains Jackson’s go-to target in the red zone, and his anytime touchdown scorer odds are far too long.
You can buy Andrews at +250 (28.6%) on FanDuel. Again, he scored in 40% of his games this year, and that includes his early exit versus Cincinnati. Pinnacle is taking action on this at a still-too-long +210 (32.2%), but at least that price is closer to his hit rate.
Kansas City’s defense ranked a solid third in passing touchdowns allowed per game this year (1.1), but the home-away splits point to some serious vulnerabilities away from Kansas City: the Chiefs ranked 13th in passing touchdowns allowed on the road (1.4). Look for Andrews to find paydirt come Sunday.
Chiefs-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Mark Andrews +250 at FanDuel
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