Just because it’s the preseason doesn’t mean we don’t get to see the starters. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints will feature at least some of their starters early on Sunday. Every week, I’ll post my top picks on Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my NFL preseason Week 1 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Chiefs-Saints odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL preseason bet!
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our AFC West and NFC South previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Chiefs-Saints Pick & Preseason Prediction
Chiefs-Saints Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Chiefs: +110 | Saints: -130
Chiefs +1.5: -110 | Saints -1.5: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
The betting odds for Sunday’s Chiefs-Saints game have moved considerably since the early-week column went live on Monday. As expected, the Chiefs announced that they would use their Week 1 starters on Sunday, just as they did last year. Yes, that means Patrick Mahomes will play in this game. Saints head coach Dennis Allen had already announced that his starters would take the field. So how did the market respond? The Chiefs, who were 3-point underdogs, are now just 1.5-point dogs. The total hasn’t budged from the 37.5 we saw on Monday, but at least some books are now stacking the juice on the over.
One interesting story to follow will be that for the first time in several seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have a choice to make at quarterback — just not at starter. After the Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl LVII, backup quarterback Chad Henne retired, leaving them to find some other solution. Kansas City has added Blaine Gabbert and retained Shane Buechele, both of whom have contributed meaningfully in preseasons past. With a job on the line, expect both of them to step up.
We can expect to see plenty of experienced players on the field come Sunday. Although the Chiefs may not need more film to evaluate Mahomes, Gabbert or Buechele, don’t be surprised to see them out there for extended runs on Sunday. Reid used Mahomes and Henne in last year’s preseason opener and has a reason to do so again due to the team’s long list of departures: wide receivers Mecole Hardman Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster both left, as did offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. The Chiefs will also use their two new starting tackles, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor.
The Saints also have a sizeable set of impactful players of which we’ll see plenty. We know they’re playing their starters, which means reps for Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. But behind them, the Saints have some intriguing options as well. Jameis Winston slides into a backup role and, as we all know, can help both teams put points on the board with his decision-making. Behind him, Jake Haener, an impressive rookie out of Fresno State, will look to make a good first impression. Haener recorded steady passing efficiency numbers for the Bulldogs and improved in the metric each season. He completed 72% of his passes last season with 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Both the Chiefs and Saints should get high-quality play out of their quarterbacks on Sunday, which takes some of the load off their receiving corps. The Chiefs are somewhat thin there now, but rookie Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore should get a chance to make some noise in the preseason. The electric Justyn Ross could get some chances late as well, especially after his impressive performances in training camp. The Saints should use Chris Olave for a few snaps, but behind him, Rashid Shaheed and Bryan Edwards stand out as potential playmakers — as does 36-year-old Jimmy Graham.
While you do expect a high-scoring game out of teams that often feature Sunday’s stars in the preseason, some books are doing a better job of expecting that outcome than others. The total sits at 37.5 across the market, but you’ll find the over priced at -114 (53.3%) at Pinnacle but -110 (52.4%) via FanDuel. This isn’t a ton of edge, but with so many experienced quarterbacks on both sides, it’s safe to expect more offensive fireworks than usual.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get $100 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager!
Chiefs-Saints Preseason Betting Pick: Over 37.5 -110 at FanDuel
