The Arizona Cardinals made the surprising decision to cut their projected starting quarterback, Colt McCoy, on Monday. The news followed the team’s decision to trade for Josh Dobbs from the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a 2024 fifth-round draft selection. With Colt McCoy cut and Kyler Murray injured, will the Cardinals start Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune? Let’s look at the data and make a prediction for Arizona’s next starting quarterback.
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Colt McCoy Cut: Will the Cardinals Start Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune?
Kyler Murray to PUP List, Colt McCoy Cut
The Arizona Cardinals invested heavily in Kyler Murray by taking him with the first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. They then picked up his fifth-year option and signed him to a $230.5 million contract extension last season, but things haven’t gone as planned since. Then-head coach Kliff Kingsbury was fired last year, and Murray suffered an ACL injury in December. The Cardinals struggled down the stretch with Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley and David Blough all pressed into service under center.
Murray landed on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list to start the 2023 campaign, keeping him out until at least Week 4 and leaving McCoy as the projected starting quarterback. Arizona had parted ways with McSorley earlier in the offseason but kept Blough. However, they had also signed Jeff Driskel and drafted Clayton Tune, which left the quarterback job open. They then traded a fourth-round draft pick for Josh Dobbs on Thursday, and with so many options at their disposal, they opted to part ways with McCoy. That now raises the question of whether the Cardinals will start Dobbs or Tune.
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Will the Cardinals Start Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune?
Although the Cardinals still have other quarterbacks on their roster, most analysts expect the starting job will come down to the veteran Josh Dobbs, who made a handful of starts for the Tennessee Titans last year and spent the preseason with the Cleveland Browns, and Clayton Tune, a fifth-round rookie out of Houston who ranked 17th in passing efficiency last season. There are pros and cons for starting both players. Regardless, the betting markets don’t seem to care much — the Cardinals were 6-point underdogs to the Commanders earlier this month, and they’re now 7-point underdogs following their recent roster moves.
Dobbs brings NFL-caliber starting experience but has a relatively well-known and low ceiling. Opposing teams will have plenty of tape on him, both from the preseason and his various previous tenures. Dobbs has completed 58.8% of his career NFL passes for 4.7 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which isn’t great. He also owns a 0-2 record as a starter. Dobbs had a chance to bring the Tennessee Titans to the playoffs last season with a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and despite his solid performance early in the game, the Titans ended up losing because of a costly fourth-quarter fumble.
Tune, a rookie, has no NFL experience, but his ceiling is unknown. He looked okay in the preseason, completing 57.6% of his passes for 5.1 NY/A. That’s a little bit more impressive when you consider that he was throwing to primarily no-name receivers, with Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore seeing only very limited preseason reps. Tune also flashed some solid mobility, picking up 44 yards on 10 attempts.
Whether the Cardinals choose to start Dobbs or Tune comes down to head coach Jonathan Gannon’s priorities. If he thinks that he can contend with this roster this season, it makes more sense to start Dobbs because of his previous starting experience and likely higher floor. If he doesn’t think this roster can compete this year, it makes more sense to start Tune to see if he has long-term value — especially if Arizona’s front office can use him as a trade chip. It would also make sense for Gannon to start Tune if he thinks the rookie can outperform Dobbs quickly, but Arizona’s Week 1 matchup with the tough Commanders defense would likely serve as a trial by fire for the first-year signal-caller.
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