The 2023 season likely hasn’t gone as either the Indianapolis Colts or the New England Patriots had hoped. Star rookie Anthony Richardson went out for the year early for Indianapolis, while the 2-7 Patriots are on pace for their worst record since the pre-Tom Brady days. These teams will meet in Deutsche Bank Park early on Sunday morning. Let’s dive into the best Colts-Patriots player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday’s NFL action in Germany. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Colts-Patriots Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Germany
Colts-Patriots Odds
Odds via bet365
Colts: -130 | Patriots: +110
Colts -2: -110 | Patriots +2: -110
Over 43: -110 | Under 43: -110
Time: Sunday, Nov. 12 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Colts-Patriots Player Prop Pick
Hunter Henry Prop O/U 29.5 Receiving Yards
The New England Patriots have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL, but that won’t be a big deal against the Indianapolis Colts. The leading receiver for quarterback Mac Jones this year has been Kendrick Bourne with 37 receptions for 406 yards, but he is now out for the season. Tight end Hunter Henry is close behind with 27 receptions for 277 yards, good for 30.8 per game. He has gone for 30-plus in four of his nine appearances and 25-plus in six. Henry now faces a Colts defense that has coughed up the fifth-most total receiving yards to tight ends (530).
Henry may no longer be the high-volume stud he was with the Los Angeles Chargers, but we’ve seen him take over against the Colts in the recent past. When the Patriots and Colts met last year, Henry racked up 50 yards on four receptions. He got 77 yards on four receptions against them with the Patriots in 2021. He also racked up 60 on four receptions and 72 yards on five receptions when facing a much different Colts defense with the Chargers. Trust Henry to get the job done for the Patriots in Germany against a Colts defense that struggles against tight ends. You’ll find the over 29.5 priced at just -110 on BetMGM. If you’re new to BetMGM, check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500.
Colts-Patriots Player Prop Pick: Hunter Henry Over 29.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM
Colts-Patriots Model Player Prop
Jalen Reagor O/U 21.5 Receiving Yards
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants to fade wide receiver Jalen Reagor, who put together a six-target, one-catch showing last week. Reagor has just 22 receiving yards on the year, but the books have set his player prop total to 21.5 for Sunday’s game.
The Colts have fared better against wide receivers than tight ends. Although they rank fifth-worst yardage-wise against the latter position, they rank a not-terrible 11th-worst yardage-wise against the former position (1,430). It won’t be easy for Reagor to just double his season production in one game.
So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
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Colts-Patriots Player Prop: Jalen Reagor Under 21.5 Receiving Yards -120 at BetMGM
Colts-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Colts are the favorite, and running back Jonathan Taylor has the shortest anytime touchdown scorer odds at only -115 on DraftKings. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has Taylor at even. So instead of backing Taylor, I’m going with Michael Pittman Jr. at +200 on WynnBet. You’ll find Pittman priced at just +164 on Pinnacle.
Pittman dominates the Colts’ receiving corps in red-zone targets. He has earned 15 red-zone looks on the season, which is nine more than the next-best option, slot receiver Josh Downs. Pittman’s 15 red-zone targets are good for a 44.1% share of the red-zone work. Although he has only converted one of those for a score, the volume we need is there — he just has to deliver.
Colts-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Michael Pittman Jr. +200 at WynnBet
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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