The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans both got new head coaches in the offseason, and they both began their tenures with a loss in Week 1. There were some silver linings and moral victories, of course, especially since these franchises have a long way to go — which makes their Week 2 battle all the more interesting. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Colts-Texans betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 2 bet, including a Colts-Texans player prop!
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Colts-Texans Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 2
Colts-Texans Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Colts: -106 | Texans: -110
Colts +1: -115 | Texans -1: -105
Over 39.5: -105 | Under 39.5: -115
Colts-Texans Pick & Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts exceeded expectations in Week 1 with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson at the helm, while the Houston Texans played acceptably with their own rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud, leading the offense. Richardson completed 64.9% of his passes for 5.24 net yards per attempt (NY/A) and added 40 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Stroud completed 63.6% for 4 NY/A and added 20 rushing yards on four attempts. While Richardson looked better, the Indianapolis offense has a major hole at running back, and it showed on Sunday afternoon.
The Colts enter Week 2 with the NFL’s worst rushing offense by far. They are dead last in expected points added (EPA) per rush attempt by nearly twice as much as the next-worst team. Aside from Richardson’s designed runs and scrambles, the Colts picked up only 25 net yards on the ground. Deon Jackson averaged 1.1 yards per carry on 14 attempts, Jake Funk averaged 5 yards on two attempts and rookie Evan Hull, who is now on injured reserve, averaged 1 yard on 1 attempt. These struggles come despite the Colts’ offensive line ranking eighth in run-block win rate (74%).
The one-dimensional Indianapolis offense won’t be hard for an experienced defensive mind like DeMeco Ryans to figure out. The Texans still have a ways to go before they’ll be considered a true contender, but Ryans’ defense was a bright spot last Sunday. The unit caused problems for Lamar Jackson, limiting him to 38 rushing yards on six carries and sacking him four times for a loss of 14 yards. The Texans pressured Jackson on 29% of his dropbacks and rank sixth in pass-rush win rate (57%). If the Colts can’t find a way to get one of their running backs going, Richardson will face the full force of Ryans’ defensive scheme.
The Texans should get a home win in Ryans’ first game in Houston. Houston leads Indianapolis in EPA per play, 27th (-0.29) to 29th (-0.34), largely because of the Colts’ failure to get things going on the ground. With Hull now on injured reserve, Zack Moss still getting over an injury and Richardson now dealing with a bruised knee, the Colts are already feeling the pressure created by their lack of depth. Houston’s announcement on Friday that Stroud is questionable with a right shoulder injury is concerning, but there isn’t a massive delta between backup Davis Mills and Stroud at this point in their careers.
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The Texans were trading as 1.5-point underdogs on Wednesday, and I recommended getting some action on them in the early week column. They steadily shifted to a 1.5-point favorite after publication. Stroud’s questionable tag could cause the Colts to be steamed back up to a slight favorite, but I’m not terribly concerned about that. Still, you’ll want to do plenty of line shopping to make sure you’re getting Houston at the best possible price following the Stroud news. At the time of publication, you could buy Houston as a one-point favorite at -105 (51.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Colts-Texans NFL Week 2 Pick: Houston -1 -105 at FanDuel
Colts-Texans Player Prop Bet
Sunday’s Colts-Texans game is a great buy-low spot for running back Dameon Pierce. The second-year player struggled in Week 1, but he had a matchup with the always-tough Baltimore Ravens rushing defense, and the Texans needed to pass after they fell behind early. Houston is a 1.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s contest, so if this game is as close as the books anticipate, the game script should favor the ground game. Pierce started 14 games in his rookie season and averaged 72.2 yards per game, beating his prop total (57.5 at BetMGM) nine times.
Pierce also draws a matchup with the not-so-great Indianapolis Colts defense. The Colts rank 18th in EPA allowed per rush attempt after Week 1. They ranked 13th in rushing yards allowed per game to running backs last year (98.2) as well. Jacksonville’s backfield did plenty of damage on the ground against them last week, with Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby combining for 90 yards and two scores on 25 attempts. Indianapolis’ defense lost its second and third leading tacklers, linebacker Bobby Okereke and safety Rodney McLeod, in the offseason, which may explain some of their struggles on the ground.
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Although there is a new coaching staff, quarterback and running back in Houston, Pierce is still the clear top dog, and the rushing attack has a big role in this offense. Pierce dominated the carries early in the game, racking up six before Devin Singletary got his second. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik told reporters that Pierce should “touch the ball more,” in Week 2, adding that the Texans “want to be, ‘we’re here to run the ball,’ and everything kind of plays off that.” Let’s take Slowik at his word and trust Pierece to clear a relatively low number — especially with Stroud now on the injury report. Members of OddsShopper Insider Access and early readers of the player prop column locked in the over at 54.5.
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Colts-Texans Week 2 Player Prop Bet: Dameon Pierce Over 57.5 Rushing Yards -110 at BetMGM
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