The Washington Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, will look to score a road upset over Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. After an 0-2 start, Cincy desperately needs a win. As is true of every primetime game, we’re here to dish out the best NFL betting advice around. Make sure to check out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting while you’re here! Without further ado, let’s dive into our Commanders-Bengals player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a model pick for Zack Moss.
Commanders-Bengals Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | MNF
Commanders-Bengals Model Player Prop Pick for Zack Moss
Betting on sports is fun. But betting on sports for entertainment and betting on sports to make money are two different things. What’s your sports betting strategy? If you’re just out here to have fun, have fun! If you’re hoping to make money, you should consider checking out Portfolio EV.
Instead of placing a few can’t-miss “locks” each week and hoping for the best, I recommend placing more bets for less money. Using the simple NFL player prop betting strategy of placing every bet with an OS Rating of 2 (which you can find via Portfolio EV) or better, you’d be 371-315 (4.4%).
If you’re interested in using our sports betting tools, stick around and read this article. However, if you’re just here for the picks, let’s spotlight something that’s trading at the top of our tools for tonight’s Commanders-Bengals game.
Although the Bengals are favored, this Zack Moss player prop is trading with too much positive expected value (+EV) to pass up. This bet is a good one to feature in your sports betting portfolio.
Moss’s receptions prop clocks in at 2.5 on every book. That said, most books have this priced between +-105 and +125. That isn’t all: ESPN BET is charging an exploitable +130, which is an off-market number we can exploit.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with +EV instead of a series of “locks” can help you unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Take Portfolio EV for a spin for free simply by signing up with one of our partner sportsbooks or pick’em sites — you can find the full details about this promotion here.
Commanders-Bengals Player Prop Model Pick: Zack Moss Over 2.5 Receptions +130 at ESPN BET
Commanders-Bengals Player Prop Pick for Terry McLaurin
Portfolio EV, is one great source of winning bets, but Tails by OddsShopper is, too. I make projection-based bets over there, some of which you can access for free (but most are paywalled). Through the Week 3 main slate, we’re sitting at 22-19 (+5.5U) on the year.
I’m a big believer in buying the dip, and there are few players who have dipped more to start the season than wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Quarterback Jayden Daniels just hasn’t been able to get him the football effectively. Despite a 100% route participation rate and 45.5% air yards share, McLaurin has just 39 total receiving yards.
The good news for McLaurin is, obviously, that the peripherals are there. Controlling almost half of Washington’s air yards is a great sign, especially against a Bengals secondary of which I’m deeply skeptical. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 75 receiving yards to Kansas City’s top option last week, and more trouble could be on the way this week.
You’ll find McLaurin’s receiving yardage prop set to only 48.5 at BetMGM this week. That’s disrespectful. McLaurin averaged 58.9 yards per game last year and cleared the 48.5 in 13 of 17 games (he went for 50-plus in 12). I personally bought the 50+ for +100 at DraftKings, but the over 48.5 for -110 at BetMGM is the official play here.
Commanders-Bengals Player Prop Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM
Commanders-Bengals Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
I have more faith in the Washington Commanders than most. I also have less faith in the Cincinnati Bengals than most. After breaking down the anytime touchdown odds for this game, only one player stands out at their current price.
While quarterback Jayden Daniels will get plenty of goal-line carries, running back Brian Robinson is an absolute steal at +185 on ESPN BET. He is trading for only +153 on Pinnacle, a sharp book. This is just too much value to pass up.
For one, Robinson has gotten plenty of red-zone work himself. Daniels may have seven red-zone carries, but Robinson has six. Daniels may have three carries inside the five, but Robinson has five inside the 10.
For another, the Bengals lost nose tackle D.J. Reader in the offseason, and they have now allowed 252 rushing yards and one rushing score to running backs this season. Rhamondre Stevenson ran wild for 120 yards and a score in Week 1.
Again, with the +185 sitting at ESPN BET and the +153 on Pinnacle, I recommend exploiting the off-market number. Pricing disparities like this one make for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Commanders-Bengals Anytime Touchdown Bet: Brian Robinson +185 at ESPN BET
