It’s bittersweet — the excitement of playoff football is here, but it also means the season is winding down. For die-hard bettors like myself, we’ll take a full Week 11 slate over this any day. More games mean more opportunities to find an edge. That said, there are two great matchups on tap, and I’m ready to wrap up the season with some wins. Of course, we’ll have plenty of Super Bowl content coming your way soon. For now, let’s dive into my best Conference Championship NFL bets.
Don’t forget to explore our NFL player prop betting strategy guide, plus more free NFL expert picks and +EV NFL bets!
Conference Championship NFL Best Bets, Sides & Totals
Portfolio EV is the best avenue there is for building your bankroll and making money sports betting. Get more +EV NFL bets by signing up with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page to get started!
Commanders at Eagles (-5.5) – Total 47.5
Weather won’t be an issue here — 40 degrees and overcast, with no significant wind. Jalen Hurts is good to go, but he’s unlikely to be at 100%. Still, the Eagles have shown they can adapt. Even after Hurts’ injury, they were running the Tush Push without hesitation. If his mobility were a real concern, the line wouldn’t have moved as high as 6 at some books.
The Eagles are dominant on both sides of the ball and have a massive talent advantage here. They’ve excelled in forcing turnovers — just look at last week’s strip sack and forced fumble recovery against the Rams. Jalen Carter is an absolute monster on defense, consistently disrupting opposing offenses.
The Commanders’ wild card is Jayden Daniels. He’s a true X-factor and threw five touchdowns against the Eagles earlier this season, but turnovers were a big problem for Washington in that game. Unless Daniels has another near-perfect performance, I don’t see the Commanders keeping this one close.
I’m taking the Eagles -5.5 at -104 on FanDuel (it’s 6 everywhere else) to cover at home. If you’re into teasers, you could bring this line down to a pick’em and pair it with another game.
Best Commanders-Eagles Player Prop: A.J. Brown Over 4.5 Receptions
This one might raise some eyebrows given the Eagles’ recent struggles in the passing game, but I like the value here. A.J. Brown said his knee is feeling better, and he’s coming off a seven-target game where the snow clearly impacted his performance. At +105 on BetMGM, Brown over 4.5 receptions is a great bounce-back play.
Bills at Chiefs (-2) – Total 47.5
We get another classic showdown between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills are 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead, and while Mahomes has historically owned this matchup, this might finally be Allen’s time.
Call it a gut feeling, but I believe Allen can break through against the Chiefs this go-around. The Bills have the talent to compete, and Allen has proven he can carry this team in big moments.
Yes, Kansas City’s defense under Steve Spagnuolo is excellent, and Mahomes always finds a way to deliver in close games. But Buffalo’s offense can score in bunches, and I’ll take Allen and the points in what should be a tightly contested game.
If you’re into teasers, bumping the Bills to +8 is a solid option to pair with the Eagles.
Bills-Chiefs Player Prop: Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
Worthy has emerged as Kansas City’s top receiving option outside of Travis Kelce. With limited competition for targets, he’s been on the field for over 80% of offensive snaps. BetMGM offers this line at -115, which is better than most other books. I’m taking Worthy over 48.5 receiving yards, expecting the Chiefs to lean on him in a competitive game.
