The San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night for one of the weekend’s most exciting games. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Cowboys-49ers betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 5 bet!
Cowboys-49ers Pick & Betting Prediction | Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Cowboys: +158 | 49ers: -188
Cowboys +3.5: -110 | 49ers -3.5: -110
Over 45: -110 | Under 45: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Cowboys-49ers Pick & Prediction
The Dallas Cowboys will face off with the San Francisco 49ers in an actually good edition of Sunday Night Football. The 49ers are 3.5-point home favorites for the matchup. These teams are two of the NFL’s best, per the advanced metrics — San Francisco is 1.8 standard deviations above the NFL average in my expected points added (EPA)-based power rating, while Dallas is 1.7 standard deviations above it, so I’m not eager to get action on the side for this one. Instead, I’m really interested in the total, which I think is a few points too high.
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The total for Sunday’s game sits at a lofty 45. These teams combined for only 31 when they met in the playoffs last year, and 10 of those points were garbage-time scores by Dallas. The Cowboys held the 49ers to five yards per play, below both their 2022 average (5.9) and their current average (6.3), while the 49ers held Dallas to 4.7 yards per play, below both their 2022 average (5.4) and their current average (5.1). This year, they’re both fielding good defenses: through four weeks, Dallas ranks second in EPA allowed per play, while San Francisco ranks ninth.
Both Dallas and San Francisco have limited opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys lead the NFL in EPA allowed per dropback and pass-rush win rate (61%). The 49ers rank sixth in EPA allowed per dropback and ninth in pass-rush win rate (50%). The two defenses have been more beatable on the ground — Dallas ranks sixth in EPA allowed per rush, while San Francisco ranks 28th; their defenses rank 15th and 16th in run-stop win rate, respectively. Both Dallas and San Francisco rank top five in rushing play percentage, so I expect the ball to stay on the ground come Sunday night.
Because the Cowboys and 49ers have run the ball so much, they rank among the league’s slowest teams. San Francisco ranks 31st in seconds per play (31.7) while Dallas ranks 26th (29.5). They are also both in the top six for average time of possession, with Dallas in second (34:37) and San Francisco in sixth (33:09). Whichever team gets out to an early lead will try to wind the clock, and the opposing offense will likely need to rely on the run to move the ball, which will keep the clock moving.
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I recommended buying the under 45 in the early week column, and we haven’t seen any line movement since then. Pregame reports that the over has drawn 71% of the tickets but only 64% of the cash, which suggests that money is squarer than it is sharp. Notably, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the juice stacked on the under. Although both of these teams have put plenty of points on the board to start this season, they’re both yet to face another team of their caliber, so I expect a much lower-scoring affair than what we’ve seen out of these squads this year.
Cowboys-49ers NFL Week 5 Pick: Under 45 -110 at BetMGM
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