Neither the Dallas Cowboys nor the New York Giants have had the start to the season they would’ve liked. Both teams are sitting at 1-2. Both teams have only beaten a bad Cleveland Browns team. I’m here to dish out my player prop picks for Thursday night’s matchup, and make sure to check out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting while you’re here! Without further ado, let’s dive into our Cowboys-Giants player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Thursday Night Football, including two player prop picks for Daniel Jones.
Cowboys-Giants Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | TNF
Cowboys-Giants Player Prop Pick for Daniel Jones
After a 4-1 (+3.1U) showing on Monday night’s double-header, we’re up to a nice 27-23 (+8.5U) on all NFL bets this season via The Profit Isaiah. I’m hoping to keep the profits flowing on this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football, and there’s no better player to look to than Daniel Jones to help us stay hot.
I’m under no illusions about the quality of a quarterback Daniel Jones is. He currently ranks 22nd among 31 quarterbacks in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score. The dude is below replacement level — but even below replacement level players can have a good night.
The Dallas defense has looked like a shell of itself through three weeks. This unit has regressed by the third-widest margin in terms of defensive EPA, and the list of quarterbacks they’ve faced — Deshaun Watson, Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson — includes two below replacement-level guys.
Last year, the New York Giants couldn’t keep their quarterback upright. This year, left tackle Andrew Thomas is healthy, and the unit now ranks sixth in pass-block win rate (67%). Meanwhile, the Dallas pass rush now ranks 21st in pass-rush win rate (39%). That could be bad luck, but I’m starting to doubt that it is.
I have enough faith in Daniel Jones to put my hard-earned money on him to record at least 200 passing yards. He cleared this mark just once last season, but he has already done so once this year and is averaging exactly 200 per game.
Aside from better offensive line play, Jones may have the best receiving option of his career in wide receiver Malik Nabers. Nabers’ receiving prop is all the way up at 69.5. If he gets there, we’re already over a third of the way to cashing this Jones prop. You’ll find the over 199.5 priced at -113 on FanDuel. The over 202.5 will cost you -110 at Pinnacle.
Cowboys-Giants Player Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 199.5 Passing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Cowboys-Giants Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
Look, I’m a big Dallas Cowboys skeptic. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe they’ll come out and stomp the Giants 40-0 like they did in Week 1 last year. The problem is that the Cowboys team that won that game isn’t this Cowboys team.
Cornerback DaRon Bland, who picked Daniel Jones off and ran it back for an early score in that game, is on the injured reserve. Dorance Armstrong, who accounted for two sacks and three tackles for loss, left in the offseason.
I think the Giants will get at least a few red-zone possessions, and I expect to see Daniel Jones run at least one across the goal line. He currently leads the Giants in red-zone carries (8). He also leads the team in carries inside the 10 (4) and the 5 (3).
Despite Jones’ heavy red-zone volume, his anytime touchdown odds clock in at +305 on Fanatics. The same bet will cost you +291 at Pinnacle — and comes in between +270 and +175 at other public books.
Taking advantage of pricing disparities like this one makes for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy. Don’t leave this one off your card.
Cowboys-Giants Anytime Touchdown Bet: Daniel Jones +305 at Fanatics
